{ "ticker": { "uuid": "190b2eed-44a3-4734-86df-fec3daa0a728", "symbol": "603788", "name": "Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.933, "architecture_energy": 43.744, "architecture_maturity": 23.63, "architecture_confidence": 93.493, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.39, "rotation_up": 19.91, "upward_expansion": 5.85, "deceleration": 50.99, "rotation_down": 52.97, "downward_expansion": 76.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.669333, 13.778727, 14.428103, 14.791555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.08, "trend_reference": 15.318605, "distance_from_trend": -0.080856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.121136, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.963092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137783, "excess_performance": -0.094579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6832260, "relative_activity": 0.483777, "balance": 0.705014, "dry_up": 0.639387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07432, "annualized_volatility": 0.340458, "from_high_reference": -0.229759, "from_low_reference": 0.113924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.318605, "fair_value_reference": 14.121136, "structural_low": 12.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.071753, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.061849, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.196415, "worst_return": -0.124188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078182, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.031244, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.186528, "worst_return": -0.085676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021587, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.067365, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.381739, "worst_return": -0.041434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.086366, "relative_strength": -16.79002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.789331, "energy": 70.808538, "activity_lines": [ 13.961333, 14.48018, 14.993449, 15.297367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.39, "volume": 8014630, "typical_volume": 14015214.4, "trend": 15.575605, "fair_value": 14.099691, "relative_strength": -12.619964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.781333, "energy": 68.649661, "activity_lines": [ 13.726, 14.186033, 14.814077, 15.151328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.86, "volume": 8413600, "typical_volume": 13925216.05, "trend": 15.466938, "fair_value": 14.101203, "relative_strength": -16.710699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.814062, "energy": 75.888785, "activity_lines": [ 13.396, 13.848761, 14.5998, 14.976128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 12859149, "typical_volume": 14193007.1, "trend": 15.393938, "fair_value": 14.10739, "relative_strength": -9.88965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.879712, "energy": 60.688509, "activity_lines": [ 13.514667, 13.778696, 14.501333, 14.876325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.08, "volume": 6832260, "typical_volume": 14122757.15, "trend": 15.318605, "fair_value": 14.121136, "relative_strength": -10.963092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.932683, "energy": 43.744188, "activity_lines": [ 13.669333, 13.778727, 14.428103, 14.791555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }