{ "ticker": { "uuid": "190ea187-7442-4970-b1b7-c0fd9f000eb2", "symbol": "GLE", "name": "MJ Gleeson plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.799, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.474, "architecture_energy": 24.155, "architecture_maturity": 22.101, "architecture_confidence": 39.467, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.84, "rotation_up": 49.8, "upward_expansion": 39.18, "deceleration": 39.78, "rotation_down": 14.13, "downward_expansion": 42.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 271.2, 262.081818, 255.590476, 264.064036 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 276.0, "trend_reference": 286.856163, "distance_from_trend": -0.037845, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 434.543871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.364851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.919623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.292222, "excess_performance": -0.343458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.364851, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.394873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347091, "relative_activity": 0.716211, "balance": 1.394873, "dry_up": 1.183673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070931, "annualized_volatility": 0.446999, "from_high_reference": -0.365441, "from_low_reference": 0.237668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 286.856163, "fair_value_reference": 434.543871, "structural_low": 223.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034325, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.01638, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.160401, "worst_return": -0.063107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05914, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.149625, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.160549, "worst_return": -0.310547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.118882, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.169908, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.167777, "worst_return": -0.33863, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"volume": 644675, "typical_volume": 505206.85, "trend": 306.132797, "fair_value": 438.256233, "relative_strength": -30.259778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.383731, "energy": 35.646204, "activity_lines": [ 245.5, 244.327273, 250.109322, 270.965612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 270.0, "volume": 723406, "typical_volume": 512014.75, "trend": 301.634424, "fair_value": 437.245666, "relative_strength": -23.401869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.62129, "energy": 19.254194, "activity_lines": [ 254.6, 248.972727, 250.811905, 268.634463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 271.5, "volume": 770043, "typical_volume": 515595.85, "trend": 296.852757, "fair_value": 436.244714, "relative_strength": -23.253472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.249269, "energy": 14.86782, "activity_lines": [ 261.6, 253.572727, 252.047619, 266.690307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 272.0, "volume": 453993, "typical_volume": 496493.4, "trend": 291.854452, "fair_value": 435.349447, "relative_strength": -23.4247, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.29582, "energy": 15.331738, "activity_lines": [ 266.433333, 257.7, 253.561905, 265.086903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 276.0, "volume": 347091, "typical_volume": 484621.25, "trend": 286.856163, "fair_value": 434.543871, "relative_strength": -21.919623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.473993, "energy": 24.155024, "activity_lines": [ 271.2, 262.081818, 255.590476, 264.064036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }