{ "ticker": { "uuid": "190ff43e-c4c8-45f2-ad18-0795a049b74c", "symbol": "CRTO", "name": "Criteo Sa", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.045, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.16, "architecture_energy": 37.415, "architecture_maturity": 5.41, "architecture_confidence": 70.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.32, "rotation_up": 56.05, "upward_expansion": 78.66, "deceleration": 54.28, "rotation_down": 17.77, "downward_expansion": 7.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.556, 20.184182, 19.277095, 18.933527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.38, "trend_reference": 18.709667, "distance_from_trend": -0.01762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.133846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.369119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.464377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042209, "excess_performance": -0.229663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.369119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166277, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6386636, "relative_activity": 3.478851, "balance": 0.918862, "dry_up": 1.400376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127658, "annualized_volatility": 0.579029, "from_high_reference": -0.273231, "from_low_reference": 0.180096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.709667, "fair_value_reference": 29.133846, "structural_low": 15.575, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007033, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032022, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.197041, "worst_return": -0.132422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000557, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111165, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.211362, "worst_return": -0.178131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.194128, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.23861, "worst_return": -0.202106, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 47.848364, "energy": 47.42776, "activity_lines": [ 19.762, 18.783818, 18.399619, 18.399204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.48, "volume": 1773101, "typical_volume": 1906194.6, "trend": 18.712333, "fair_value": 29.346923, "relative_strength": 0.067101, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.491979, "energy": 64.133551, "activity_lines": [ 20.928, 19.585091, 18.803905, 18.648688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.44, "volume": 1416387, "typical_volume": 1612293.6, "trend": 18.726667, "fair_value": 29.266538, "relative_strength": -6.906972, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.949886, "energy": 69.477557, "activity_lines": [ 21.105333, 19.906545, 18.991952, 18.760151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.82, "volume": 707375, "typical_volume": 1590795.9, "trend": 18.786, "fair_value": 29.207564, "relative_strength": -0.516964, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.353711, "energy": 73.254218, "activity_lines": [ 21.542667, 20.399273, 19.308095, 18.95972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.38, "volume": 6386636, "typical_volume": 1835846.35, "trend": 18.709667, "fair_value": 29.133846, "relative_strength": -19.464377, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.160424, "energy": 37.415243, "activity_lines": [ 20.556, 20.184182, 19.277095, 18.933527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }