{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "191e2273-45d5-4d46-bf7d-a0ebee28979b",
    "symbol": "SBR",
    "name": "Sabine Royalty Trust",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 89.306,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 3.333,
    "architecture_energy": 4.605,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.735,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.501,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.0,
        "rotation_up": 24.79,
        "upward_expansion": 44.32,
        "deceleration": 81.54,
        "rotation_down": 27.67,
        "downward_expansion": 31.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        72.862709,
        72.908836,
        73.651,
        73.473465
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 72.21,
    "trend_reference": 72.546589,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.00464,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 61.177246,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180341,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.111768,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.065155,
    "excess_performance": -0.06047,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00464,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013916,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.180341,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08058,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101118,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072097,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065155,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.541653,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 277083,
      "relative_activity": 1.488604,
      "balance": 0.541653,
      "dry_up": 1.068461,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045141,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.167366,
      "from_high_reference": -0.106578,
      "from_low_reference": 0.139663
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 72.546589,
      "fair_value_reference": 61.177246,
      "structural_low": 66.778391,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.088675,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.086667,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.139801,
        "worst_return": 0.00457,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.106021,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035007,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.458266,
        "worst_return": -0.140806,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.340001,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.252106,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.470315,
        "worst_return": 0.101366,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.214769,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.05159,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.286079,
        "worst_return": -0.095871,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.020668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.097478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.005788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025931,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.032468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.135737,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.107448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03494,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.074546,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009323,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006374,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": -0.007267,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 188496.75,
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        "fair_value": 60.802691,
        "relative_strength": -5.690894,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 12.071177,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.8,
        "volume": 162760,
        "typical_volume": 187387.85,
        "trend": 72.148252,
        "fair_value": 60.939724,
        "relative_strength": -4.130283,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 73.02,
        "volume": 206507,
        "typical_volume": 188133.3,
        "trend": 72.312089,
        "fair_value": 61.061918,
        "relative_strength": -6.11665,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.149082,
        "energy": 6.586612,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 72.21,
        "volume": 277083,
        "typical_volume": 186136.15,
        "trend": 72.546589,
        "fair_value": 61.177246,
        "relative_strength": -10.111768,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.333497,
        "energy": 4.605176,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}