{ "ticker": { "uuid": "191e68be-5cc0-440b-8bb6-a196b4a1efcb", "symbol": "XTLB", "name": "XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.377, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.023, "architecture_energy": 32.178, "architecture_maturity": 10.195, "architecture_confidence": 56.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.04, "rotation_up": 59.15, "upward_expansion": 49.63, "deceleration": 19.2, "rotation_down": 17.1, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.773091, 2.66143, 2.686353 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.94, "trend_reference": 2.861483, "distance_from_trend": 0.027439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.505989, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.466036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.929357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.313084, "excess_performance": -0.500538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027439, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.466036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08405, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.43884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26265, "relative_activity": 0.004259, "balance": 8.43884, "dry_up": 0.00493, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158608, "annualized_volatility": 0.988762, "from_high_reference": -0.713997, "from_low_reference": 0.462614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.861483, "fair_value_reference": 5.505989, "structural_low": 2.0101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.056341, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.115115, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.099858, "worst_return": -0.394531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.186612, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.300513, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.933333, "worst_return": -0.361257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.26087, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.322321, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.4, "worst_return": -0.503906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.156603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"direction": -17.831518, "energy": 12.301546, "activity_lines": [ 2.642667, 2.512545, 2.539984, 2.676437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 56937, "typical_volume": 6182308.0, "trend": 2.83975, "fair_value": 5.511261, "relative_strength": -30.360693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.273684, "energy": 10.900261, "activity_lines": [ 2.746667, 2.578, 2.565871, 2.675532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.94, "volume": 23335, "typical_volume": 6177852.95, "trend": 2.83923, "fair_value": 5.50933, "relative_strength": -24.738216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.214602, "energy": 12.498234, "activity_lines": [ 2.836667, 2.656182, 2.602288, 2.682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.82, "volume": 15070, "typical_volume": 6169598.0, "trend": 2.853297, "fair_value": 5.507405, "relative_strength": -26.729657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.471282, "energy": 22.257759, "activity_lines": [ 2.86, 2.706545, 2.627145, 2.680759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.94, "volume": 26265, "typical_volume": 6167019.95, "trend": 2.861483, "fair_value": 5.505989, "relative_strength": -25.929357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.023362, "energy": 32.177706, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.773091, 2.66143, 2.686353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }