{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19230ab9-7d31-45ec-bcc0-56f02fba9ae1", "symbol": "5344", "name": "Vate Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.562, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.712, "architecture_energy": 54.404, "architecture_maturity": 10.736, "architecture_confidence": 76.067, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.49, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 28.58, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 69.48, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.17, 14.775454, 15.310952, 15.257634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.85, "trend_reference": 15.123333, "distance_from_trend": -0.084197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.258974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.437243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031469, "excess_performance": -0.472841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.388581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152066, "relative_activity": 0.199751, "balance": 1.388581, "dry_up": 0.342018, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089975, "annualized_volatility": 0.393726, "from_high_reference": -0.271053, "from_low_reference": 0.108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.123333, "fair_value_reference": 17.258974, "structural_low": 12.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095, "worst_return": -0.09201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055555, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232446, "worst_return": -0.11, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098765, "worst_return": -0.331719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085859, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.182081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069597, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11326, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003623, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 335000, "typical_volume": 405550.0, "trend": 17.13, "fair_value": 18.560577, "relative_strength": -11.794641, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.901483, "energy": 20.713004, "activity_lines": [ 15.956666, 15.940909, 15.805, 15.503011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.3, "volume": 256171, "typical_volume": 797076.75, "trend": 15.208333, "fair_value": 17.33141, "relative_strength": -25.165602, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.798224, "energy": 11.348069, "activity_lines": [ 15.766666, 15.806363, 15.793333, 15.50871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.8, "volume": 293212, "typical_volume": 799466.1, "trend": 15.201667, "fair_value": 17.314423, "relative_strength": -28.577351, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.917017, "energy": 6.085453, "activity_lines": [ 15.443333, 15.611818, 15.730952, 15.482366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 272000, "typical_volume": 805141.05, "trend": 15.186667, "fair_value": 17.298718, "relative_strength": -28.968228, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.663525, "energy": 26.352665, "activity_lines": [ 15.043333, 15.37, 15.627381, 15.430645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.8, "volume": 324202, "typical_volume": 795987.45, "trend": 15.145, "fair_value": 17.277564, "relative_strength": -32.982703, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.402149, "energy": 46.763329, "activity_lines": [ 14.526667, 15.051818, 15.464762, 15.341183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.85, "volume": 152066, "typical_volume": 761276.65, "trend": 15.123333, "fair_value": 17.258974, "relative_strength": -34.437243, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.712087, "energy": 54.404451, "activity_lines": [ 14.17, 14.775454, 15.310952, 15.257634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }