{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19261884-00bf-4398-a64d-0a7ee4db03f6", "symbol": "SCNX", "name": "Scienture Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.081, "architecture_energy": 13.523, "architecture_maturity": 40.296, "architecture_confidence": 59.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.09, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 18.35, "deceleration": 40.81, "rotation_down": 29.48, "downward_expansion": 54.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.38192, 0.376751, 0.380572, 0.388355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 0.40626, "distance_from_trend": -0.064638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.455555, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.890032, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.198201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204355, "excess_performance": -0.391809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.890032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.421982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.123235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1029421, "relative_activity": 0.177519, "balance": 11.123235, "dry_up": 0.445827, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163259, "annualized_volatility": 0.767245, "from_high_reference": -0.853846, "from_low_reference": 0.595298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.40626, "fair_value_reference": 3.455555, "structural_low": 0.2382, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008043, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.025649, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.084337, "worst_return": -0.227964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.286117, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.30175, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.06962, "worst_return": -0.639456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.55236, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.572611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.414313, "worst_return": -0.664557, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.761619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.580993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.361467, 0.374995, 0.384151, 0.401099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.3701, "volume": 69623241, "typical_volume": 13321141.15, "trend": 0.426603, "fair_value": 3.554013, "relative_strength": -55.421938, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.443273, "energy": 35.037788, "activity_lines": [ 0.36324, 0.372411, 0.381928, 0.396948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.414, "volume": 6514165, "typical_volume": 13567667.1, "trend": 0.421387, "fair_value": 3.52889, "relative_strength": -45.025754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.868388, "energy": 17.348974, "activity_lines": [ 0.378973, 0.378375, 0.384031, 0.396135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3693, "volume": 1514762, "typical_volume": 13586393.8, "trend": 0.416927, "fair_value": 3.508032, "relative_strength": -47.374915, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.6866, "energy": 18.299884, "activity_lines": [ 0.3774, 0.375956, 0.381953, 0.392774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3807, "volume": 1282969, "typical_volume": 5946132.65, "trend": 0.412263, "fair_value": 3.478904, "relative_strength": -42.93565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.359045, "energy": 13.667025, "activity_lines": [ 0.38046, 0.376224, 0.38109, 0.390437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 1029421, "typical_volume": 5798948.2, "trend": 0.40626, "fair_value": 3.455555, "relative_strength": -42.198201, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.081157, "energy": 13.52263, "activity_lines": [ 0.38192, 0.376751, 0.380572, 0.388355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }