{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1933528b-fcd0-4221-82c7-6dc5a1784105", "symbol": "HWVL", "name": "HSBC MSCI World Value Screened UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.051, "architecture_energy": 73.991, "architecture_maturity": 79.276, "architecture_confidence": 75.426, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 63.87, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.344333, 25.147909, 24.629214, 24.117957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.98, "trend_reference": 23.5145, "distance_from_trend": 0.10485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.620955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.989902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148287, "excess_performance": -0.022604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10485, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012333, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148287, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.933635, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7288, "relative_activity": 0.994196, "balance": 2.933635, "dry_up": 1.665291, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016655, "annualized_volatility": 0.106643, "from_high_reference": -0.002496, "from_low_reference": 0.30317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.5145, "fair_value_reference": 19.620955, "structural_low": 21.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.013844, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.00154, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.066725, "worst_return": -0.053628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036148, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.011182, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.084612, "worst_return": -0.0277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034213, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.125586, "worst_return": -0.008673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.038844, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038844, "worst_return": 0.038844, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.082408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", 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23.194333, "fair_value": 19.429083, "relative_strength": -1.852153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.862243, "energy": 70.968962, "activity_lines": [ 24.992666, 24.791727, 24.153166, 23.718301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.145, "volume": 9025, "typical_volume": 5502.0, "trend": 23.300833, "fair_value": 19.491641, "relative_strength": -0.66439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.585913, "energy": 69.203657, "activity_lines": [ 25.055666, 24.896, 24.302666, 23.84415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.965, "volume": 30041, "typical_volume": 6985.35, "trend": 23.400166, "fair_value": 19.553045, "relative_strength": -2.024369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.697868, "energy": 64.852359, "activity_lines": [ 25.035666, 24.939181, 24.423904, 23.951516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.98, "volume": 7288, "typical_volume": 7330.55, "trend": 23.5145, "fair_value": 19.620955, "relative_strength": -0.989902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.05069, "energy": 73.990742, "activity_lines": [ 25.344333, 25.147909, 24.629214, 24.117957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }