{ "ticker": { "uuid": "193aba18-74e0-471a-b2a3-2c4949bcabfe", "symbol": "CMU", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.787, "architecture_energy": 64.184, "architecture_maturity": 94.48, "architecture_confidence": 63.561, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.02, "rotation_up": 47.91, "upward_expansion": 76.17, "deceleration": 74.18, "rotation_down": 29.66, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 421.623342, 421.0891, 411.224766, 398.683229 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 429.700012, "trend_reference": 384.176669, "distance_from_trend": 0.118496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 317.433548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353669, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.968314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186689, "excess_performance": 0.133377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092184, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099683, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.963579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8853, "relative_activity": 0.334137, "balance": 2.963579, "dry_up": 0.477059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02372, "annualized_volatility": 0.175926, "from_high_reference": -0.004633, "from_low_reference": 0.344283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 384.176669, "fair_value_reference": 317.433548, "structural_low": 326.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.005277, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.002056, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.074113, "worst_return": -0.063636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010106, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005728, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.090421, "worst_return": -0.039648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048399, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010997, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173341, "worst_return": -0.179771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 63.532251, "energy": 62.464498, "activity_lines": [ 419.000006, 418.376369, 404.982383, 393.119034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 418.200012, "volume": 7237, "typical_volume": 27227.6, "trend": 381.891669, "fair_value": 316.385791, "relative_strength": 9.960618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.7481, "energy": 53.318495, "activity_lines": [ 418.303341, 418.835462, 407.722146, 395.59882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 429.700012, "volume": 8853, "typical_volume": 26495.15, "trend": 384.176669, "fair_value": 317.433548, "relative_strength": 9.968314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.786733, "energy": 64.183847, "activity_lines": [ 421.623342, 421.0891, 411.224766, 398.683229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }