{ "ticker": { "uuid": "193ed5f9-57a4-447b-83af-03f01158db1c", "symbol": "PHM", "name": "Pharma Mar, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.726, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.266, "architecture_energy": 27.721, "architecture_maturity": 24.551, "architecture_confidence": 67.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.93, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 15.42, "deceleration": 65.09, "rotation_down": 32.77, "downward_expansion": 60.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.500002, 77.32277, 82.57626, 83.934896 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 78.400002, "trend_reference": 84.243208, "distance_from_trend": -0.069361, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.542145, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.992938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028197, "excess_performance": -0.096234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170705, "relative_activity": 0.620346, "balance": 0.448785, "dry_up": 0.739469, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093472, "annualized_volatility": 0.577923, "from_high_reference": -0.254753, "from_low_reference": 0.239957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.243208, "fair_value_reference": 63.542145, "structural_low": 63.227984, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.090329, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.081004, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.155326, "worst_return": -0.165941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090901, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219171, "worst_return": -0.335087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06797, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.103376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061201, "worst_return": -0.526684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109925, "active": false 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62.660824, "relative_strength": -19.536614, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.885257, "energy": 43.514992, "activity_lines": [ 76.243334, 78.623471, 84.770729, 84.932613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.300003, "volume": 171811, "typical_volume": 282624.3, "trend": 84.183207, "fair_value": 62.960549, "relative_strength": -16.610564, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.084697, "energy": 25.737936, "activity_lines": [ 77.719052, 77.902631, 84.062176, 84.623052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.400002, "volume": 205443, "typical_volume": 283388.95, "trend": 84.283207, "fair_value": 63.250685, "relative_strength": -16.812999, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.987791, "energy": 19.020835, "activity_lines": [ 78.51888, 77.509064, 83.368384, 84.314458 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.400002, "volume": 170705, "typical_volume": 275177.0, "trend": 84.243208, "fair_value": 63.542145, "relative_strength": -18.992938, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.265779, "energy": 27.720899, "activity_lines": [ 78.500002, 77.32277, 82.57626, 83.934896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }