{ "ticker": { "uuid": "193f2b4d-ba45-4fbe-839e-7dc9e9ecb5df", "symbol": "BGU", "name": "Bristol Gate Concentrated US Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.659, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.351, "architecture_energy": 69.745, "architecture_maturity": 65.301, "architecture_confidence": 79.35, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 61.84, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.67, "rotation_down": 28.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.382666, 53.211091, 52.032, 51.146796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.82, "trend_reference": 50.382333, "distance_from_trend": 0.068232, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.878365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173102, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.706154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090799, "excess_performance": -0.029623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173102, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062109, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090799, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.157895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5000, "relative_activity": 0.866551, "balance": 2.157895, "dry_up": 1.039861, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014121, "annualized_volatility": 0.107867, "from_high_reference": -0.015007, "from_low_reference": 0.168476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.382333, "fair_value_reference": 45.878365, "structural_low": 46.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010852, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000986, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.062752, "worst_return": -0.105482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008213, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000705, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.125619, "worst_return": -0.061836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05677, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.017015, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178843, "worst_return": -0.13135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7765.0, "trend": 49.432, "fair_value": 45.004647, "relative_strength": -5.297628, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.424429, "energy": 65.103259, "activity_lines": [ 50.701334, 50.117273, 49.380476, 49.391247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 53.240002, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 6670.0, "trend": 49.573333, "fair_value": 45.123237, "relative_strength": -2.841267, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.199639, "energy": 92.953587, "activity_lines": [ 51.699334, 50.750728, 49.773762, 49.636925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 53.200001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 6245.0, "trend": 49.676333, "fair_value": 45.236378, "relative_strength": -2.649022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.95515, "energy": 94.565765, "activity_lines": [ 52.427334, 51.290364, 50.145381, 49.870903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5780.0, "trend": 49.808, "fair_value": 45.35125, "relative_strength": -2.787332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.087886, "energy": 93.548503, "activity_lines": [ 52.948001, 51.804546, 50.515762, 50.10985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.23, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 5570.0, "trend": 49.941667, "fair_value": 45.459583, "relative_strength": -2.918339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.521039, "energy": 89.888357, "activity_lines": [ 53.182001, 52.217273, 50.851, 50.330624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.75, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 5595.0, "trend": 50.049333, "fair_value": 45.561058, "relative_strength": -3.394305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.476617, "energy": 88.587196, "activity_lines": [ 53.096667, 52.472182, 51.123905, 50.511807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.209999, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 5625.0, "trend": 50.164667, "fair_value": 45.663301, "relative_strength": -2.542063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.849312, "energy": 88.613087, "activity_lines": [ 53.113333, 52.746182, 51.426905, 50.715721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.32, "volume": 10700, "typical_volume": 5870.0, "trend": 50.293667, "fair_value": 45.768365, "relative_strength": -1.695741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.982644, "energy": 68.330705, "activity_lines": [ 53.168666, 52.970727, 51.718857, 50.91929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.82, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 5770.0, "trend": 50.382333, "fair_value": 45.878365, "relative_strength": -3.706154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.351342, "energy": 69.744742, "activity_lines": [ 53.382666, 53.211091, 52.032, 51.146796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }