{ "ticker": { "uuid": "194822d6-1eec-48ca-b61d-f90162e31016", "symbol": "SPYD", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO S&P 500 HIGH DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.625, "architecture_energy": 71.585, "architecture_maturity": 33.146, "architecture_confidence": 72.302, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.15, "rotation_up": 76.51, "upward_expansion": 92.43, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 13.11, "downward_expansion": 14.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.591333, 49.093238, 48.168791, 47.574014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 49.9, "trend_reference": 46.884091, "distance_from_trend": 0.064327, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.535045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231034, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.394534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07172, "excess_performance": -0.053905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064327, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.617346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6761362, "relative_activity": 1.175923, "balance": 1.617346, "dry_up": 0.894388, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025077, "annualized_volatility": 0.12785, "from_high_reference": -0.019646, "from_low_reference": 0.219059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.884091, "fair_value_reference": 40.535045, "structural_low": 44.036107, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.01115, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004381, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.070125, "worst_return": -0.123106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016693, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.024329, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.100371, "worst_return": -0.065122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024815, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.091111, "worst_return": -0.060763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 64.710258, "energy": 50.962279, "activity_lines": [ 48.244088, 47.851173, 47.098423, 46.728487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.39, "volume": 4142138, "typical_volume": 6544924.55, "trend": 46.250364, "fair_value": 40.227777, "relative_strength": 1.464303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.413638, "energy": 68.132193, "activity_lines": [ 48.648661, 48.208672, 47.361852, 46.945468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.75, "volume": 3873468, "typical_volume": 6200645.75, "trend": 46.473168, "fair_value": 40.327962, "relative_strength": 2.815087, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.570666, "energy": 73.439936, "activity_lines": [ 49.118, 48.572882, 47.65062, 47.171251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.5, "volume": 5793371, "typical_volume": 5986710.25, "trend": 46.684008, "fair_value": 40.430391, "relative_strength": 1.202437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.866774, "energy": 66.714009, "activity_lines": [ 49.318, 48.817901, 47.900579, 47.36653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.9, "volume": 6761362, "typical_volume": 5749833.3, "trend": 46.884091, "fair_value": 40.535045, "relative_strength": -1.394534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.625462, "energy": 71.585301, "activity_lines": [ 49.591333, 49.093238, 48.168791, 47.574014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }