{ "ticker": { "uuid": "194a605d-f15c-414f-8e70-5576ecd74fde", "symbol": "EMMUKD", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD Ukdis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.765, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.54, "architecture_energy": 17.997, "architecture_maturity": 64.93, "architecture_confidence": 86.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.97, "rotation_up": 17.28, "upward_expansion": 45.78, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 38.24, "downward_expansion": 28.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.42, 23.704818, 23.726852, 23.243984 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.725, "trend_reference": 22.614212, "distance_from_trend": 0.049119, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.679572, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.093229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111351, "excess_performance": 0.028467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049119, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020932, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111351, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.885868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72393, "relative_activity": 1.651892, "balance": 1.885868, "dry_up": 1.737461, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039896, "annualized_volatility": 0.241065, "from_high_reference": -0.062623, "from_low_reference": 0.364972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.614212, "fair_value_reference": 16.679572, "structural_low": 19.556, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003337, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005448, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144382, "worst_return": -0.051018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204771, "worst_return": -0.001161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065302, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092796, "worst_return": 0.016735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002749, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 87596, "typical_volume": 39270.15, "trend": 22.37507, "fair_value": 16.548246, "relative_strength": 1.189166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.856786, "energy": 23.320347, "activity_lines": [ 23.446334, 23.872546, 23.626057, 23.096665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.434999, "volume": 108385, "typical_volume": 41950.15, "trend": 22.501475, "fair_value": 16.611853, "relative_strength": 2.442859, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.741797, "energy": 22.122346, "activity_lines": [ 23.364667, 23.759636, 23.66949, 23.165047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.725, "volume": 72393, "typical_volume": 43824.3, "trend": 22.614212, "fair_value": 16.679572, "relative_strength": 2.093229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.540209, "energy": 17.99658, "activity_lines": [ 23.42, 23.704818, 23.726852, 23.243984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }