{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19577919-74f0-47bf-9797-4a45251f6e76", "symbol": "CBSUST", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF hCHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.363, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.371, "architecture_energy": 82.652, "architecture_maturity": 45.481, "architecture_confidence": 78.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 76.2, "downward_expansion": 93.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.0218, 10.082773, 10.1343, 10.169308 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.035, "trend_reference": 10.224306, "distance_from_trend": -0.018515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.18708, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.287708, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030968, "excess_performance": -0.113852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.620085, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34008, "relative_activity": 0.86587, "balance": 3.620085, "dry_up": 0.636067, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007818, "annualized_volatility": 0.047638, "from_high_reference": -0.047044, "from_low_reference": 0.008745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.224306, "fair_value_reference": 10.18708, "structural_low": 9.948, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005327, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.009966, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.048029, "worst_return": -0.048103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000407, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009444, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.097853, "worst_return": -0.117396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015668, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.025123, "worst_return": -0.114886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-30.750019, "energy": 15.358756, "activity_lines": [ 10.214533, 10.202918, 10.211083, 10.239924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.108, "volume": 34405, "typical_volume": 42624.0, "trend": 10.270828, "fair_value": 10.187682, "relative_strength": -11.150393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.741969, "energy": 34.824001, "activity_lines": [ 10.1814, 10.186827, 10.199133, 10.228922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1095, "volume": 32115, "typical_volume": 41499.7, "trend": 10.26197, "fair_value": 10.187172, "relative_strength": -11.498244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.224377, "energy": 54.096595, "activity_lines": [ 10.1533, 10.172645, 10.18884, 10.218514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.971, "volume": 18402, "typical_volume": 38625.9, "trend": 10.249147, "fair_value": 10.186391, "relative_strength": -12.273505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.519381, "energy": 81.643523, "activity_lines": [ 10.0849, 10.135482, 10.166976, 10.199742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.978, "volume": 15404, "typical_volume": 38303.6, "trend": 10.235565, "fair_value": 10.186581, "relative_strength": -11.962255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.946157, "energy": 87.642021, "activity_lines": [ 10.034933, 10.102473, 10.147393, 10.182248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.035, "volume": 34008, "typical_volume": 39276.1, "trend": 10.224306, "fair_value": 10.18708, "relative_strength": -12.287708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.371019, "energy": 82.65216, "activity_lines": [ 10.0218, 10.082773, 10.1343, 10.169308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }