{ "ticker": { "uuid": "195e1952-239d-4f04-8939-e78bde450bc7", "symbol": "SIMT", "name": "WisdomTree Industrial Metals 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.849, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.371, "architecture_energy": 35.332, "architecture_maturity": 16.04, "architecture_confidence": 64.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.69, "rotation_up": 60.97, "upward_expansion": 45.95, "deceleration": 35.82, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 18.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.0196, 19.948818, 19.480786, 19.497835 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.796, "trend_reference": 19.528934, "distance_from_trend": 0.013675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.058128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17716, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.305337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013406, "excess_performance": -0.184298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013675, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17716, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.729798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 9.729798, "dry_up": 0.31192, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022421, "annualized_volatility": 0.214864, "from_high_reference": -0.17671, "from_low_reference": 0.109641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.528934, "fair_value_reference": 24.058128, "structural_low": 17.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018728, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031155, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.242322, "worst_return": -0.075828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118427, "worst_return": -0.14604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001873, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035115, "worst_return": -0.118143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 19.939933, 19.370909, 19.236334, 19.377867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 277.95, "trend": 19.626034, "fair_value": 24.161801, "relative_strength": -15.657269, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.096198, "energy": 75.45685, "activity_lines": [ 20.166867, 19.6178, 19.327157, 19.422187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.355, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 252.7, "trend": 19.5977, "fair_value": 24.130808, "relative_strength": -15.054285, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.124823, "energy": 76.580085, "activity_lines": [ 20.307333, 19.833618, 19.413805, 19.469218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.796, "volume": 336, "typical_volume": 269.5, "trend": 19.550734, "fair_value": 24.096327, "relative_strength": -17.43062, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.078515, "energy": 63.860584, "activity_lines": [ 20.153667, 19.902436, 19.446381, 19.482011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.796, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 269.3, "trend": 19.528934, "fair_value": 24.058128, "relative_strength": -19.305337, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.370986, "energy": 35.331815, "activity_lines": [ 20.0196, 19.948818, 19.480786, 19.497835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }