{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1964fa0b-b60a-4cac-ad4a-63425c27220b",
    "symbol": "VIS",
    "name": "Viscofan, S.A.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 81.711,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -22.084,
    "architecture_energy": 34.312,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.271,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.05,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.44,
        "rotation_up": 23.98,
        "upward_expansion": 17.35,
        "deceleration": 43.23,
        "rotation_down": 49.55,
        "downward_expansion": 52.01
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.699999,
        57.027272,
        57.322437,
        57.499336
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 57.299999,
    "trend_reference": 57.494932,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.00339,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 55.577749,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030988,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -17.358851,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.038043,
    "excess_performance": -0.136203,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00339,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025856,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030988,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017833,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.173589,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03247,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038043,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.0,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 5.0,
      "dry_up": 5.0,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.028425,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.166251,
      "from_high_reference": -0.047916,
      "from_low_reference": 0.153547
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 57.494932,
      "fair_value_reference": 55.577749,
      "structural_low": 54.400002,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.001718,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03832,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.008292,
        "worst_return": -0.031405,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.020576,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.057831,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.019449,
        "worst_return": -0.021703,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.081582,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.241676,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.06401,
        "worst_return": -0.099155,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.004255,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.315075,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.034891,
        "worst_return": -0.043401,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008489,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029253,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.001163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001782,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.050473,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.041566,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040708,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.027521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003503,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 51.489841,
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        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 55.247384,
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        "fair_value": 55.342479,
        "relative_strength": -13.406137,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.697516,
        "energy": 20.491917,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 58.051628,
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        "relative_strength": -14.111853,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.04446,
        "energy": 21.000407,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 56.597916,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 55.69447,
        "fair_value": 55.354228,
        "relative_strength": -15.340103,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.708365,
        "energy": 11.135332,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 55.870153,
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        "relative_strength": -15.444674,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 10.563679,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 0.0,
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        "fair_value": 55.383541,
        "relative_strength": -16.386831,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.401122,
        "energy": 10.685633,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.45722,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 57.700001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 56.238833,
        "fair_value": 55.40082,
        "relative_strength": -14.979557,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.711277,
        "energy": 10.76639,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.507996,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 59.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 56.484933,
        "fair_value": 55.434881,
        "relative_strength": -14.867128,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 26.377584,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 57.299999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 56.648266,
        "fair_value": 55.454665,
        "relative_strength": -20.064029,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.570269,
        "energy": 17.124419,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.893205,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 58.599998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 56.818266,
        "fair_value": 55.474333,
        "relative_strength": -16.086269,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.783788,
        "energy": 25.517203,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.157391,
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          57.632859
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 58.700001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 57.014932,
        "fair_value": 55.499149,
        "relative_strength": -17.345573,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.888774,
        "energy": 36.115066,
        "activity_lines": [
          58.366666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 55.700001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 57.124932,
        "fair_value": 55.492905,
        "relative_strength": -19.963885,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.037093,
        "energy": 5.773034,
        "activity_lines": [
          57.513333,
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          57.768589,
          57.669427
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 56.099998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 57.214932,
        "fair_value": 55.506123,
        "relative_strength": -17.264599,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.515653,
        "energy": 32.75506,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.926666,
          57.38424,
          57.587884,
          57.603302
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.900002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 57.294932,
        "fair_value": 55.524818,
        "relative_strength": -18.158008,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.300894,
        "energy": 48.738401,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.466667,
          57.098147,
          57.40337,
          57.518468
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 57.099998,
        "volume": 171,
        "typical_volume": 8.55,
        "trend": 57.401599,
        "fair_value": 55.551206,
        "relative_strength": -15.754284,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.522508,
        "energy": 38.193742,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.5,
          57.042925,
          57.349332,
          57.505891
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.299999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8.55,
        "trend": 57.494932,
        "fair_value": 55.577749,
        "relative_strength": -17.358851,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.083912,
        "energy": 34.311785,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.699999,
          57.027272,
          57.322437,
          57.499336
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}