{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1969d2eb-f5f6-4906-be3b-7621f9d6cf77", "symbol": "SAFE", "name": "Safestore Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.952, "architecture_energy": 25.971, "architecture_maturity": 77.417, "architecture_confidence": 71.27, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 20.31, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 616.466667, 610.768325, 621.840145, 643.254409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 626.5, "trend_reference": 682.380973, "distance_from_trend": -0.081891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 726.76477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.887806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242228, "excess_performance": -0.308506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.320742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1660375, "relative_activity": 0.768487, "balance": 1.320742, "dry_up": 1.21314, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053281, "annualized_volatility": 0.308608, "from_high_reference": -0.262298, "from_low_reference": 0.09133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 682.380973, "fair_value_reference": 726.76477, "structural_low": 574.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01381, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.005372, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.162444, "worst_return": -0.15736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057961, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.201087, "worst_return": -0.169596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056825, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081669, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.041342, "worst_return": -0.11757, "sufficient": false }, { 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-59.055143, "energy": 48.124195, "activity_lines": [ 602.86166, 606.036703, 628.185603, 656.790019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 615.5, "volume": 3384950, "typical_volume": 2164761.25, "trend": 689.100649, "fair_value": 730.008294, "relative_strength": -16.866966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.31428, "energy": 38.374647, "activity_lines": [ 607.710553, 606.664308, 625.061641, 651.818373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 615.5, "volume": 3326345, "typical_volume": 2224864.5, "trend": 685.640788, "fair_value": 728.319262, "relative_strength": -17.481556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.126053, "energy": 34.059829, "activity_lines": [ 610.433333, 607.499104, 622.781845, 647.069944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 626.5, "volume": 1660375, "typical_volume": 2160575.3, "trend": 682.380973, "fair_value": 726.76477, "relative_strength": -15.887806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.951727, "energy": 25.970844, "activity_lines": [ 616.466667, 610.768325, 621.840145, 643.254409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }