{ "ticker": { "uuid": "196dc884-b9ec-4eca-838c-d4d02a5d268b", "symbol": "3109", "name": "Csop Asset Management Limited - CSOP STAR 50 Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.51, "architecture_energy": 24.602, "architecture_maturity": 65.559, "architecture_confidence": 95.135, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.23, "rotation_up": 24.72, "upward_expansion": 57.25, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 37.01, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.954, 17.602728, 17.107191, 16.277656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.01, "trend_reference": 15.366, "distance_from_trend": 0.106989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.147436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.676286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.834863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.267511, "excess_performance": 0.301093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.676286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.198349, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.267511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.55711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5402029, "relative_activity": 1.652432, "balance": 1.55711, "dry_up": 1.948852, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118663, "annualized_volatility": 0.459127, "from_high_reference": -0.21829, "from_low_reference": 0.771875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.366, "fair_value_reference": 10.147436, "structural_low": 11.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057006, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002217, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.104083, "worst_return": -0.026831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035984, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116987, "worst_return": -0.125247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299679, "worst_return": -0.110777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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18.302545, 16.716238, 15.846624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 6883682, "typical_volume": 2595824.0, "trend": 14.990333, "fair_value": 9.999487, "relative_strength": 25.860663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.197648, "energy": 55.021458, "activity_lines": [ 18.598667, 18.119636, 16.823476, 15.960774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.26, "volume": 6521950, "typical_volume": 2792701.5, "trend": 15.149333, "fair_value": 10.051474, "relative_strength": 27.284759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.712958, "energy": 40.79504, "activity_lines": [ 18.077334, 18.041636, 16.981762, 16.107204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 6676597, "typical_volume": 3078741.35, "trend": 15.258667, "fair_value": 10.095064, "relative_strength": 13.143698, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.691801, "energy": 19.790888, "activity_lines": [ 17.233334, 17.722909, 17.005286, 16.164667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.01, "volume": 5402029, "typical_volume": 3269137.8, "trend": 15.366, "fair_value": 10.147436, "relative_strength": 19.834863, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.510079, "energy": 24.602131, "activity_lines": [ 16.954, 17.602728, 17.107191, 16.277656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }