{ "ticker": { "uuid": "196ea90f-ff49-4772-9a26-c32deebba06b", "symbol": "600515", "name": "Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.713, "architecture_energy": 54.968, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.979, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.2, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 22.1, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 46.63, "downward_expansion": 72.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.839674, 2.824007, 2.986481, 3.203251 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.89, "trend_reference": 3.561669, "distance_from_trend": -0.188583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.748622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.908049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354911, "excess_performance": -0.311707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455572838, "relative_activity": 1.21974, "balance": 0.478862, "dry_up": 1.36496, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061724, "annualized_volatility": 0.257225, "from_high_reference": -0.510169, "from_low_reference": 0.088431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.561669, "fair_value_reference": 3.748622, "structural_low": 2.655199, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.028985, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011083, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.255737, "worst_return": -0.544118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.079514, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.017183, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.262987, "worst_return": -0.529625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027822, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.564302, "worst_return": -0.591294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-70.070041, "energy": 67.61187, "activity_lines": [ 2.747344, 2.818373, 3.046768, 3.303445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.93, "volume": 494293379, "typical_volume": 372204348.25, "trend": 3.643002, "fair_value": 3.756406, "relative_strength": -24.341331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.976883, "energy": 63.302024, "activity_lines": [ 2.807339, 2.82219, 3.016244, 3.251832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.89, "volume": 455572838, "typical_volume": 373499846.45, "trend": 3.561669, "fair_value": 3.748622, "relative_strength": -26.908049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.713033, "energy": 54.967527, "activity_lines": [ 2.839674, 2.824007, 2.986481, 3.203251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }