{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1980ac70-477b-41ce-bad8-88eae0947d96", "symbol": "3629", "name": "Gravity Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.265, "architecture_energy": 67.555, "architecture_maturity": 81.438, "architecture_confidence": 86.34, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 16.54, "upward_expansion": 13.14, "deceleration": 45.59, "rotation_down": 67.44, "downward_expansion": 86.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.603333, 14.03, 14.884048, 15.749462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.15, "trend_reference": 17.006667, "distance_from_trend": -0.167973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.561218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.423889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.37152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2925, "excess_performance": -0.733872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152069, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.423889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.533715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32694, "relative_activity": 1.264066, "balance": 0.910245, "dry_up": 1.166615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075836, "annualized_volatility": 0.30897, "from_high_reference": -0.569909, "from_low_reference": 0.105469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.006667, "fair_value_reference": 24.561218, "structural_low": 12.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.052144, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.054944, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.95977, "worst_return": -0.237845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058524, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.108346, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.62973, "worst_return": -0.392958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.260317, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.096017, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.942065, "worst_return": -0.429139, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178689, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.304167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.389002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153623, 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14.825455, 15.676667, 16.556882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 24282.55, "trend": 17.651667, "fair_value": 24.933333, "relative_strength": -57.644774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.626645, "energy": 92.069118, "activity_lines": [ 13.656667, 14.378182, 15.323572, 16.21914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 25379.45, "trend": 17.278333, "fair_value": 24.716346, "relative_strength": -55.240562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.917295, "energy": 77.770374, "activity_lines": [ 13.473333, 14.118182, 15.060952, 15.95129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.15, "volume": 32694, "typical_volume": 25864.15, "trend": 17.006667, "fair_value": 24.561218, "relative_strength": -53.37152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.264683, "energy": 67.555067, "activity_lines": [ 13.603333, 14.03, 14.884048, 15.749462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }