{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1984be6a-45d3-4ec0-9045-8734add60624", "symbol": "CECO", "name": "CECO Environmental Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.069, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.49, "architecture_energy": 24.958, "architecture_maturity": 48.83, "architecture_confidence": 69.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.96, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 71.24, "rotation_down": 58.86, "downward_expansion": 35.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.569333, 78.426727, 79.3175, 76.232871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 70.92, "trend_reference": 73.0015, "distance_from_trend": -0.028513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.745577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.878896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.143421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020036, "excess_performance": -0.20749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.878896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.676653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4968678, "relative_activity": 1.238244, "balance": 0.8431, "dry_up": 1.154468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168701, "annualized_volatility": 0.695525, "from_high_reference": -0.299486, "from_low_reference": 0.657784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.0015, "fair_value_reference": 37.745577, "structural_low": 50.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052278, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.273039, "worst_return": -0.180068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.297872, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.295661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.775046, "worst_return": -0.345946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.294816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126555, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.56876, "worst_return": 0.081081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.674468, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.309971, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.316074, "worst_return": 0.533472, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.323944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12621, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022003, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174624, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.516893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.363303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062277, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.17, "volume": 1076362, "typical_volume": 1476370.45, "trend": 13.131333, "fair_value": 8.751282, "relative_strength": -7.762968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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78.905857, 75.141344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 83.63, "volume": 3951534, "typical_volume": 4070213.85, "trend": 71.312667, "fair_value": 36.191154, "relative_strength": 18.22567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.130867, "energy": 42.06096, "activity_lines": [ 87.726667, 86.500727, 79.920024, 75.984763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.93, "volume": 2866299, "typical_volume": 3800186.25, "trend": 72.02, "fair_value": 36.621474, "relative_strength": 16.572189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.783873, "energy": 23.756526, "activity_lines": [ 84.184, 85.580909, 80.558714, 76.54072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.63, "volume": 3692519, "typical_volume": 3754476.8, "trend": 72.494167, "fair_value": 37.030641, "relative_strength": 11.025823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.278696, "energy": 20.736388, "activity_lines": [ 80.328667, 83.912909, 80.695119, 76.773624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.89, "volume": 7002558, "typical_volume": 3936501.8, "trend": 72.6975, "fair_value": 37.378718, "relative_strength": -4.060554, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.068793, "energy": 16.48573, "activity_lines": [ 74.744667, 80.568727, 79.793905, 76.347548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.92, "volume": 4968678, "typical_volume": 4012681.1, "trend": 73.0015, "fair_value": 37.745577, "relative_strength": -2.143421, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.490169, "energy": 24.958279, "activity_lines": [ 72.569333, 78.426727, 79.3175, 76.232871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }