{ "ticker": { "uuid": "198f68f8-caea-47f2-b5a4-57743bfed6fe", "symbol": "PPTA", "name": "Perpetua Resources Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.704, "architecture_energy": 49.81, "architecture_maturity": 27.693, "architecture_confidence": 90.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.19, "rotation_up": 23.84, "upward_expansion": 9.61, "deceleration": 49.61, "rotation_down": 59.91, "downward_expansion": 82.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.388667, 28.848364, 31.884714, 34.142946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.48, "trend_reference": 36.958667, "distance_from_trend": -0.067066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.927115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.821725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.723809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103717, "excess_performance": -0.224138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.821725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.625226, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 702000, "relative_activity": 1.388394, "balance": 1.051039, "dry_up": 1.295044, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125045, "annualized_volatility": 0.836969, "from_high_reference": -0.325245, "from_low_reference": 0.525664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.958667, "fair_value_reference": 18.927115, "structural_low": 23.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.033384, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.04858, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.49866, "worst_return": -0.300059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.043678, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.097436, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.237981, "worst_return": -0.251265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05277, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019748, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.859649, "worst_return": -0.373766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264537, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.514243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -37.435635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.77606, "energy": 87.668307, "activity_lines": [ 27.772667, 30.269091, 33.869143, 35.888624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.139999, "volume": 708400, "typical_volume": 612335.0, "trend": 37.449334, "fair_value": 18.600064, "relative_strength": -33.715682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.395272, "energy": 86.939805, "activity_lines": [ 26.382, 28.969818, 32.80781, 35.07043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.780001, "volume": 678000, "typical_volume": 605545.0, "trend": 37.186667, "fair_value": 18.735192, "relative_strength": -31.699493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.342331, "energy": 84.515024, "activity_lines": [ 25.786, 28.034182, 31.896143, 34.31757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.48, "volume": 702000, "typical_volume": 505620.0, "trend": 36.958667, "fair_value": 18.927115, "relative_strength": -11.723809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.70358, "energy": 49.810065, "activity_lines": [ 28.388667, 28.848364, 31.884714, 34.142946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }