{ "ticker": { "uuid": "199c4717-57bf-4999-aed8-fd87307abbfb", "symbol": "WPK", "name": "Winpak Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.576, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.748, "architecture_energy": 43.907, "architecture_maturity": 6.526, "architecture_confidence": 61.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.13, "rotation_up": 63.63, "upward_expansion": 50.4, "deceleration": 21.33, "rotation_down": 14.95, "downward_expansion": 23.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.298666, 43.827251, 42.841348, 43.264577 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.759998, "trend_reference": 44.049579, "distance_from_trend": -0.006574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.800294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.79718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072639, "excess_performance": -0.193061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.81099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428900, "relative_activity": 1.424846, "balance": 1.81099, "dry_up": 1.527249, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034646, "annualized_volatility": 0.215873, "from_high_reference": -0.161399, "from_low_reference": 0.124787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.049579, "fair_value_reference": 41.800294, "structural_low": 38.905149, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023207, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.036718, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.124905, "worst_return": -0.081564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078827, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.107318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193319, "worst_return": -0.122215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043422, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097187, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.067853, "worst_return": -0.132096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.91171, "energy": 29.299301, "activity_lines": [ 41.606699, 41.160892, 42.166962, 43.204786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 43.880001, "volume": 9600, "typical_volume": 280355.0, "trend": 44.144935, "fair_value": 41.58254, "relative_strength": -9.692041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.212221, "energy": 20.995134, "activity_lines": [ 42.451255, 41.67951, 42.176404, 43.189234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.919998, "volume": 310400, "typical_volume": 284445.0, "trend": 44.131234, "fair_value": 41.618143, "relative_strength": -9.184665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.554186, "energy": 22.145544, "activity_lines": [ 43.118658, 42.180855, 42.221817, 43.174721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.720001, "volume": 368900, "typical_volume": 272780.0, "trend": 44.13023, "fair_value": 41.658519, "relative_strength": -6.921218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.258228, "energy": 33.934684, "activity_lines": [ 43.848254, 42.760811, 42.381765, 43.212706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.48, "volume": 496600, "typical_volume": 281100.0, "trend": 44.160214, "fair_value": 41.712738, "relative_strength": -5.392809, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.669715, "energy": 45.986804, "activity_lines": [ 44.574043, 43.401373, 42.630316, 43.299788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.970001, "volume": 544500, "typical_volume": 295870.0, "trend": 44.115555, "fair_value": 41.757456, "relative_strength": -7.813548, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.886248, "energy": 48.547165, "activity_lines": [ 44.51, 43.665464, 42.743142, 43.287517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.759998, "volume": 428900, "typical_volume": 301015.0, "trend": 44.049579, "fair_value": 41.800294, "relative_strength": -10.79718, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.748444, "energy": 43.907161, "activity_lines": [ 44.298666, 43.827251, 42.841348, 43.264577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }