{ "ticker": { "uuid": "199c7480-a45c-4baf-b65d-cce67e394d89", "symbol": "REAX", "name": "Real Brokerage Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.205, "architecture_energy": 27.856, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.292, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.28, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 57.25, "rotation_down": 35.93, "downward_expansion": 67.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.892, 1.903818, 1.929571, 2.068516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.14, "trend_reference": 2.345333, "distance_from_trend": -0.08755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.653237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.414218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.385694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.335404, "excess_performance": -0.522857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.414218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30123018, "relative_activity": 1.7177, "balance": 1.125141, "dry_up": 1.289956, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138832, "annualized_volatility": 0.786836, "from_high_reference": -0.60407, "from_low_reference": 0.380645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.345333, "fair_value_reference": 3.653237, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.027848, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.030465, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.351145, "worst_return": -0.335821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044989, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.587786, "worst_return": -0.36646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.117633, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.180263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.40458, "worst_return": -0.448276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.991142, "energy": 25.036685, "activity_lines": [ 2.040667, 1.922727, 2.011143, 2.198194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 18505106, "typical_volume": 15660129.9, "trend": 2.481, "fair_value": 3.651186, "relative_strength": -52.642457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.238171, "energy": 25.954091, "activity_lines": [ 1.942, 1.893273, 1.968667, 2.14286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 21927979, "typical_volume": 16362064.05, "trend": 2.411333, "fair_value": 3.650929, "relative_strength": -54.622201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.742341, "energy": 44.021168, "activity_lines": [ 1.818, 1.847818, 1.921619, 2.086022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.14, "volume": 30123018, "typical_volume": 17536831.15, "trend": 2.345333, "fair_value": 3.653237, "relative_strength": -41.385694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.204584, "energy": 27.856016, "activity_lines": [ 1.892, 1.903818, 1.929571, 2.068516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }