{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19a3e03c-59bf-4454-b502-a1d1982e5d98", "symbol": "UB0A", "name": "UBS Core MSCI USA UCITS ETF hGBP acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.098, "architecture_energy": 65.344, "architecture_maturity": 57.571, "architecture_confidence": 76.738, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.7, "rotation_up": 54.85, "upward_expansion": 81.55, "deceleration": 67.33, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 10.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3139.666667, 3123.15, 3093.745238, 3033.987634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3224.5, "trend_reference": 2966.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.08688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2435.496795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32396, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.994301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127941, "excess_performance": 0.076705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029943, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.478277, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1976, "relative_activity": 0.202477, "balance": 12.478277, "dry_up": 0.252302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016943, "annualized_volatility": 0.12883, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.226046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2966.75, "fair_value_reference": 2435.496795, "structural_low": 2651.342041, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.017128, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": 0.005318, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.063786, "worst_return": -0.09314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.051784, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.012177, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.133183, "worst_return": -0.07035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068447, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.025099, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.168136, "worst_return": -0.172966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.544898, "energy": 63.712892, "activity_lines": [ 3109.583333, 3106.390909, 3039.472619, 2986.530645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3106.75, "volume": 5333, "typical_volume": 10589.15, "trend": 2940.083333, "fair_value": 2410.658654, "relative_strength": 2.060022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.110562, "energy": 59.149528, "activity_lines": [ 3110.933333, 3107.6, 3053.014286, 2997.861828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3094.5, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 10518.35, "trend": 2947.608333, "fair_value": 2418.514423, "relative_strength": 0.382994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.954609, "energy": 57.786213, "activity_lines": [ 3107.1, 3105.627273, 3064.158333, 3007.824194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3084.25, "volume": 1740, "typical_volume": 10016.2, "trend": 2955.608333, "fair_value": 2426.466346, "relative_strength": -1.154685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.525036, "energy": 47.938419, "activity_lines": [ 3100.9, 3101.45, 3073.045238, 3016.639785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3224.5, "volume": 1976, "typical_volume": 9759.15, "trend": 2966.75, "fair_value": 2435.496795, "relative_strength": 2.994301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.097645, "energy": 65.343591, "activity_lines": [ 3139.666667, 3123.15, 3093.745238, 3033.987634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }