{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19a4db88-ceaf-43ab-9be2-a9895c6e53d3", "symbol": "600711", "name": "Chengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.214, "architecture_energy": 42.788, "architecture_maturity": 44.935, "architecture_confidence": 80.197, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.74, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 5.54, "deceleration": 58.28, "rotation_down": 51.2, "downward_expansion": 76.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.862667, 11.000364, 11.740033, 12.368971 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.84, "trend_reference": 13.414586, "distance_from_trend": -0.117379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.236088, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.636243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.894251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26436, "excess_performance": -0.221157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038113, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.636243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.551543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600015459, "relative_activity": 1.264257, "balance": 0.704265, "dry_up": 1.21392, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125175, "annualized_volatility": 0.61606, "from_high_reference": -0.3653, "from_low_reference": 0.604212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.414586, "fair_value_reference": 7.236088, "structural_low": 8.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.019783, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.02088, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.209497, "worst_return": -0.186876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.075697, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041752, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.363129, "worst_return": -0.249513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.183099, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.111111, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.435754, "worst_return": -0.245781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.139804, 12.765221, 13.382693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.74, "volume": 465688681, "typical_volume": 471825362.95, "trend": 13.902886, "fair_value": 7.087989, "relative_strength": -11.733367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.734151, "energy": 69.278653, "activity_lines": [ 11.345333, 11.808474, 12.517879, 13.171897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.35, "volume": 468046362, "typical_volume": 468797405.5, "trend": 13.767695, "fair_value": 7.117746, "relative_strength": -18.650117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.949738, "energy": 84.415985, "activity_lines": [ 10.549333, 11.278318, 12.163893, 12.878162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.58, "volume": 760927342, "typical_volume": 479529762.85, "trend": 13.661553, "fair_value": 7.154393, "relative_strength": -9.604108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.001295, "energy": 68.118915, "activity_lines": [ 10.406667, 11.067269, 11.962535, 12.672504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.64, "volume": 475514104, "typical_volume": 478403156.55, "trend": 13.523215, "fair_value": 7.191426, "relative_strength": -9.833179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.421104, "energy": 58.590564, "activity_lines": [ 10.434, 10.908727, 11.786797, 12.477565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.84, "volume": 600015459, "typical_volume": 474599355.65, "trend": 13.414586, "fair_value": 7.236088, "relative_strength": -2.894251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.21356, "energy": 42.787703, "activity_lines": [ 10.862667, 11.000364, 11.740033, 12.368971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }