{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19a5a815-8a2c-42f4-b6f4-4815e53a903b", "symbol": "603890", "name": "Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.682, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.593, "architecture_energy": 22.257, "architecture_maturity": 47.753, "architecture_confidence": 76.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.45, "rotation_up": 14.6, "upward_expansion": 42.18, "deceleration": 86.32, "rotation_down": 46.23, "downward_expansion": 36.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.932, 20.970852, 21.68491, 20.471478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.129999, "trend_reference": 18.911486, "distance_from_trend": 0.011554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.486181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.532094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.924403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.270252, "excess_performance": 0.313456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011554, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.532094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.129244, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.270252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.287162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116628305, "relative_activity": 0.785757, "balance": 1.287162, "dry_up": 0.802493, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213067, "annualized_volatility": 0.796938, "from_high_reference": -0.402981, "from_low_reference": 0.590191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.911486, "fair_value_reference": 12.486181, "structural_low": 12.71, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040707, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.083102, "worst_return": -0.139695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.154305, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.114655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348245, "worst_return": -0.305343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026073, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32763, "worst_return": -0.264821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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148526739, "typical_volume": 139575885.45, "trend": 18.694486, "fair_value": 12.291051, "relative_strength": 24.990131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.314463, "energy": 19.537992, "activity_lines": [ 22.752001, 23.876258, 22.224928, 20.53854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.889999, "volume": 124466452, "typical_volume": 142768574.15, "trend": 18.803486, "fair_value": 12.359254, "relative_strength": 16.470557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.171715, "energy": 21.133978, "activity_lines": [ 21.110667, 22.946837, 22.107954, 20.551153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.25, "volume": 86828106, "typical_volume": 144471876.05, "trend": 18.811486, "fair_value": 12.415427, "relative_strength": 5.346223, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.803543, "energy": 22.611667, "activity_lines": [ 19.38, 21.7376, 21.813599, 20.450928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.129999, "volume": 116628305, "typical_volume": 148427993.05, "trend": 18.911486, "fair_value": 12.486181, "relative_strength": 12.924403, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.592707, "energy": 22.257238, "activity_lines": [ 18.932, 20.970852, 21.68491, 20.471478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }