{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19b3c718-3be1-4e7f-9d25-c02e7f628f2c", "symbol": "UAA", "name": "Under Armour Inc A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.596, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.538, "architecture_energy": 18.167, "architecture_maturity": 17.065, "architecture_confidence": 53.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.64, "rotation_up": 47.54, "upward_expansion": 47.48, "deceleration": 40.82, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 10.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.659333, 6.620545, 6.354476, 6.339634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.11, "trend_reference": 6.384333, "distance_from_trend": -0.04297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.885705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.636867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191799, "excess_performance": -0.317424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100747, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112654, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44760239, "relative_activity": 1.137026, "balance": 1.341628, "dry_up": 1.011012, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132821, "annualized_volatility": 0.568509, "from_high_reference": -0.250307, "from_low_reference": 0.479419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.384333, "fair_value_reference": 6.885705, "structural_low": 4.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001972, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.057765, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.243945, "worst_return": -0.101944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06169, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122837, "worst_return": -0.008876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.200242, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.267593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.285467, "worst_return": -0.340821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.685718, "energy": 33.680603, "activity_lines": [ 6.502667, 6.202545, 6.112333, 6.201785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.43, "volume": 42430536, "typical_volume": 42490354.8, "trend": 6.244, "fair_value": 6.910192, "relative_strength": 19.345081, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.723046, "energy": 58.88993, "activity_lines": [ 6.857333, 6.456909, 6.233667, 6.284538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.03, "volume": 36191118, "typical_volume": 41648040.85, "trend": 6.323333, "fair_value": 6.904359, "relative_strength": 14.154094, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.465535, "energy": 56.38967, "activity_lines": [ 6.986667, 6.620364, 6.316857, 6.335247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 35816273, "typical_volume": 39382469.95, "trend": 6.368667, "fair_value": 6.896795, "relative_strength": 7.253847, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.319415, "energy": 48.787878, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 6.68, 6.361762, 6.356323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.11, "volume": 44760239, "typical_volume": 39366052.15, "trend": 6.384333, "fair_value": 6.885705, "relative_strength": -4.636867, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.537879, "energy": 18.167067, "activity_lines": [ 6.659333, 6.620545, 6.354476, 6.339634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }