{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19b5d5a3-edbf-43dd-8a35-c03bb45f4497", "symbol": "ALORA", "name": "Altheora SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.868, "architecture_energy": 38.227, "architecture_maturity": 69.459, "architecture_confidence": 61.875, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.22, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 42.72, "downward_expansion": 66.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.395467, 0.395236, 0.415495, 0.432535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.4, "trend_reference": 0.459267, "distance_from_trend": -0.129046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.450603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.142273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.206349, "excess_performance": -0.259661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29648, "relative_activity": 0.704392, "balance": 0.559773, "dry_up": 1.115432, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08, "annualized_volatility": 0.336112, "from_high_reference": -0.41691, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.459267, "fair_value_reference": 0.450603, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.02955, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.41, "worst_return": -0.335092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.070093, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.079977, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.530435, "worst_return": -0.368932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.122455, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.126689, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.238938, "worst_return": -0.417476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093366, "active": false 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0.403067, 0.420964, 0.442233, 0.459045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.372, "volume": 33354, "typical_volume": 48135.95, "trend": 0.475833, "fair_value": 0.457, "relative_strength": -22.332138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.544287, "energy": 84.755925, "activity_lines": [ 0.3902, 0.409673, 0.434243, 0.452353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.38, "volume": 5937, "typical_volume": 43066.5, "trend": 0.4762, "fair_value": 0.455718, "relative_strength": -20.450875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.541135, "energy": 78.237537, "activity_lines": [ 0.385, 0.401618, 0.427576, 0.44617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 109900, "typical_volume": 46897.1, "trend": 0.470467, "fair_value": 0.454372, "relative_strength": -16.402939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.60461, "energy": 63.325257, "activity_lines": [ 0.389133, 0.398473, 0.423195, 0.441254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 42310, "typical_volume": 43941.8, "trend": 0.464667, "fair_value": 0.452321, "relative_strength": -17.482664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.530289, "energy": 50.369868, "activity_lines": [ 0.392067, 0.396236, 0.419167, 0.436708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 29648, "typical_volume": 42090.2, "trend": 0.459267, "fair_value": 0.450603, "relative_strength": -19.142273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.867896, "energy": 38.227339, "activity_lines": [ 0.395467, 0.395236, 0.415495, 0.432535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }