{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19b9417f-6a18-46a1-aafc-6dd3f8e181b8", "symbol": "000528", "name": "Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.858, "architecture_energy": 22.068, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.776, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.68, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 20.45, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.89, "downward_expansion": 56.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.427333, 8.268545, 8.459015, 8.848614 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.36, "trend_reference": 9.535675, "distance_from_trend": -0.123292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.695165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.985542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.266023, "excess_performance": -0.273423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266023, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144185879, "relative_activity": 1.044268, "balance": 0.460276, "dry_up": 1.192923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069415, "annualized_volatility": 0.290437, "from_high_reference": -0.355436, "from_low_reference": 0.110226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.535675, "fair_value_reference": 9.695165, "structural_low": 7.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008072, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.007933, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.167539, "worst_return": -0.129604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008576, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007384, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.117638, "worst_return": -0.132333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.157804, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.709779, "worst_return": -0.146768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.522649, "energy": 67.0167, "activity_lines": [ 7.95, 8.196796, 8.644067, 9.21866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.06, "volume": 143199859, "typical_volume": 146488966.35, "trend": 9.916675, "fair_value": 9.677323, "relative_strength": -24.509325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.636854, "energy": 61.873026, "activity_lines": [ 7.968, 8.124606, 8.541542, 9.088595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.49, "volume": 197390593, "typical_volume": 146053489.55, "trend": 9.780342, "fair_value": 9.683725, "relative_strength": -20.255771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.739069, "energy": 47.284789, "activity_lines": [ 8.152, 8.154479, 8.498446, 8.996551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.78, "volume": 174068328, "typical_volume": 141885941.3, "trend": 9.652675, "fair_value": 9.69076, "relative_strength": -15.604344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.493471, "energy": 31.455267, "activity_lines": [ 8.4, 8.249291, 8.495064, 8.932013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.36, "volume": 144185879, "typical_volume": 138073635.55, "trend": 9.535675, "fair_value": 9.695165, "relative_strength": -22.985542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.858051, "energy": 22.068406, "activity_lines": [ 8.427333, 8.268545, 8.459015, 8.848614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }