{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19bab1c8-06b0-48ab-aeea-75737f2c1bf7", "symbol": "SSIL", "name": "WisdomTree Silver 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.086, "architecture_energy": 58.954, "architecture_maturity": 8.412, "architecture_confidence": 68.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.31, "rotation_up": 69.62, "upward_expansion": 87.5, "deceleration": 48.13, "rotation_down": 11.56, "downward_expansion": 11.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.925533, 1.902145, 1.781481, 1.719011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.779, "trend_reference": 1.647, "distance_from_trend": 0.080146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.586776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.729913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -62.960419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072979, "excess_performance": -0.043683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.52037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.729913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068234, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.629604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.597546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15239, "relative_activity": 0.364252, "balance": 11.597546, "dry_up": 0.420351, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078999, "annualized_volatility": 0.589375, "from_high_reference": -0.772215, "from_low_reference": 0.564644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.647, "fair_value_reference": 6.586776, "structural_low": 1.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00811, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.068641, "worst_return": -0.084383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056528, "worst_return": -0.046398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.051144, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.12635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051144, "worst_return": 0.051144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "green", "start": "2021-12-10", "end": "2022-01-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-03-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], 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-65.700168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.816132, "energy": 20.35979, "activity_lines": [ 1.803667, 1.707873, 1.639438, 1.748198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.907, "volume": 1407, "typical_volume": 75531.15, "trend": 2.2296, "fair_value": 6.736846, "relative_strength": -63.757062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.993636, "energy": 29.732401, "activity_lines": [ 1.851067, 1.755945, 1.669186, 1.71469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.056, "volume": 54051, "typical_volume": 63207.35, "trend": 2.0378, "fair_value": 6.699962, "relative_strength": -60.146966, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 37.858689, "energy": 48.651437, "activity_lines": [ 1.933467, 1.825509, 1.711105, 1.70349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.007, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 60484.75, "trend": 1.844367, "fair_value": 6.662763, "relative_strength": -59.920966, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.301906, "energy": 72.545566, "activity_lines": [ 1.975867, 1.8748, 1.74471, 1.701503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.987, "volume": 883, "typical_volume": 50138.2, "trend": 1.650267, "fair_value": 6.625436, "relative_strength": -59.459225, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.290218, "energy": 81.477179, "activity_lines": [ 1.9864, 1.911418, 1.774057, 1.710705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.779, "volume": 15239, "typical_volume": 41836.45, "trend": 1.647, "fair_value": 6.586776, "relative_strength": -62.960419, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.086052, "energy": 58.953881, "activity_lines": [ 1.925533, 1.902145, 1.781481, 1.719011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }