{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19c3916f-e772-4834-85c3-0fe083e8b425", "symbol": "CEU", "name": "CES Energy Solutions Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.111, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.568, "architecture_energy": 15.943, "architecture_maturity": 25.689, "architecture_confidence": 73.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.22, "rotation_up": 48.12, "upward_expansion": 31.8, "deceleration": 45.99, "rotation_down": 19.64, "downward_expansion": 20.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.201334, 16.862175, 17.130166, 17.237829 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.33, "trend_reference": 16.973624, "distance_from_trend": 0.079911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.813444, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.079777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.369761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.207115, "excess_performance": 0.086694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.079777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173698, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3315000, "relative_activity": 1.305804, "balance": 1.597409, "dry_up": 1.099771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068577, "annualized_volatility": 0.399002, "from_high_reference": -0.061064, "from_low_reference": 1.528835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.973624, "fair_value_reference": 8.813444, "structural_low": 14.905792, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024115, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029874, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.268238, "worst_return": -0.095057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.208762, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.137977, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.356848, "worst_return": -0.055506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.491967, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.455411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.670844, "worst_return": 0.259921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070848, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.029903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.276151, "volume": 6575200, "typical_volume": 2218690.0, "trend": 2.533053, "fair_value": 1.93237, "relative_strength": 31.669081, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.35, "volume": 2875100, "typical_volume": 3551905.0, "trend": 16.319649, "fair_value": 8.445586, "relative_strength": 12.223669, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.299287, "energy": 30.544088, "activity_lines": [ 16.344524, 16.699136, 17.301262, 17.097262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.41, "volume": 2442700, "typical_volume": 3492455.0, "trend": 16.460934, "fair_value": 8.534391, "relative_strength": 11.756426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.580235, "energy": 19.810572, "activity_lines": [ 16.374613, 16.578165, 17.191052, 17.103091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.280001, "volume": 2783700, "typical_volume": 3443225.0, "trend": 16.633206, "fair_value": 8.628286, "relative_strength": 16.123092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.875607, "energy": 14.461727, "activity_lines": [ 16.717669, 16.6394, 17.165462, 17.155934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.34, "volume": 2626400, "typical_volume": 3201060.0, "trend": 16.767423, "fair_value": 8.715428, "relative_strength": 9.253226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.297256, "energy": 12.157609, "activity_lines": [ 16.619334, 16.548985, 17.048585, 17.137017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.33, "volume": 3315000, "typical_volume": 2538665.0, "trend": 16.973624, "fair_value": 8.813444, "relative_strength": 17.369761, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.567559, "energy": 15.94307, "activity_lines": [ 17.201334, 16.862175, 17.130166, 17.237829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }