{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19c5321f-8f28-4210-9b70-b3164b842b4c", "symbol": "GBTC", "name": "GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.24, "architecture_energy": 30.234, "architecture_maturity": 60.671, "architecture_confidence": 85.386, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.36, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 15.77, "deceleration": 45.91, "rotation_down": 34.9, "downward_expansion": 63.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.637333, 49.088364, 51.580095, 52.81871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.3, "trend_reference": 55.128, "distance_from_trend": -0.087578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.012865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.731663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07926, "excess_performance": -0.204885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11915, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161846, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7273091, "relative_activity": 0.728144, "balance": 0.727714, "dry_up": 0.761404, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07674, "annualized_volatility": 0.380191, "from_high_reference": -0.492534, "from_low_reference": 0.118275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.128, "fair_value_reference": 60.012865, "structural_low": 44.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.019074, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.002868, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.427491, "worst_return": -0.363967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.894366, "worst_return": -0.417214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.197015, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.262737, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.614789, "worst_return": -0.485984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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55.996731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 47.64, "volume": 7394239, "typical_volume": 12699109.75, "trend": 58.475333, "fair_value": 59.047288, "relative_strength": -38.785575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.617311, "energy": 80.567497, "activity_lines": [ 47.68, 50.907455, 53.71281, 55.249806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.56, "volume": 6858983, "typical_volume": 12294193.25, "trend": 57.774667, "fair_value": 59.238378, "relative_strength": -36.175638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.987549, "energy": 67.599374, "activity_lines": [ 48.276, 50.110182, 53.252857, 54.674624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.71, "volume": 8003773, "typical_volume": 11827303.05, "trend": 57.137, "fair_value": 59.429628, "relative_strength": -33.966863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.273032, "energy": 51.573033, "activity_lines": [ 48.738, 49.547636, 52.822667, 54.154323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.72, "volume": 6543079, "typical_volume": 11132472.3, "trend": 56.514333, "fair_value": 59.628314, "relative_strength": -32.558539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.751977, "energy": 42.439312, "activity_lines": [ 49.178667, 49.216, 52.40019, 53.675806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.73, "volume": 8601313, "typical_volume": 10471098.85, "trend": 55.800667, "fair_value": 59.817481, "relative_strength": -33.602921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.792321, "energy": 34.963686, "activity_lines": [ 49.228, 48.917455, 51.899333, 53.173591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.3, "volume": 7273091, "typical_volume": 9988537.2, "trend": 55.128, "fair_value": 60.012865, "relative_strength": -32.731663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.239666, "energy": 30.234478, "activity_lines": [ 49.637333, 49.088364, 51.580095, 52.81871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }