{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19c70851-c118-4671-a183-191850b36438", "symbol": "SRIU", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.051, "architecture_energy": 50.523, "architecture_maturity": 65.258, "architecture_confidence": 85.355, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 43.9, "upward_expansion": 66.4, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 25.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 1780.033333, 1783.947273, 1755.34428, 1707.903373 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1824.4, "trend_reference": 1653.689575, "distance_from_trend": 0.10323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1454.821547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.621169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.17768, "excess_performance": 0.126445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046212, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17768, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.280358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4238, "relative_activity": 0.145474, "balance": 9.280358, "dry_up": 0.575907, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021871, "annualized_volatility": 0.137167, "from_high_reference": -0.000723, "from_low_reference": 0.256059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1653.689575, "fair_value_reference": 1454.821547, "structural_low": 1452.479004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012792, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.035554, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.042539, "worst_return": -0.090076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02605, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.127369, "worst_return": -0.173016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012384, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130436, "worst_return": -0.092951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.960882, "energy": 65.03717, "activity_lines": [ 1788.406667, 1782.94, 1726.800943, 1681.438946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1757.5, "volume": 47808, "typical_volume": 31931.2, "trend": 1639.939358, "fair_value": 1447.118237, "relative_strength": 2.38229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.426158, "energy": 56.375693, "activity_lines": [ 1775.7, 1780.341819, 1735.465706, 1689.416091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1748.3, "volume": 9717, "typical_volume": 31171.85, "trend": 1646.207777, "fair_value": 1450.655357, "relative_strength": 0.629958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.157475, "energy": 44.06269, "activity_lines": [ 1763.533333, 1775.381819, 1742.326183, 1696.4071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1824.4, "volume": 4238, "typical_volume": 29132.3, "trend": 1653.689575, "fair_value": 1454.821547, "relative_strength": 4.621169, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.051112, "energy": 50.523306, "activity_lines": [ 1780.033333, 1783.947273, 1755.34428, 1707.903373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }