{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19c825de-2128-456b-a6f3-f0d57cff64b1", "symbol": "UBUV", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.331, "architecture_energy": 37.285, "architecture_maturity": 5.113, "architecture_confidence": 76.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.56, "rotation_up": 68.33, "upward_expansion": 44.21, "deceleration": 31.06, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 16.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.114334, 30.812273, 30.56931, 30.632043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.315001, "trend_reference": 30.667667, "distance_from_trend": 0.021108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.579648, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.039831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037264, "excess_performance": -0.079398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.030632, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1508, "relative_activity": 2.470916, "balance": 5.030632, "dry_up": 4.292151, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019479, "annualized_volatility": 0.109726, "from_high_reference": -0.026729, "from_low_reference": 0.075747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.667667, "fair_value_reference": 28.579648, "structural_low": 29.549999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001669, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008576, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.039914, "worst_return": -0.084585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001669, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070038, "worst_return": -0.093518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.087407, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.077463, "worst_return": -0.06804, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005741, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 362.0, "trend": 30.353334, "fair_value": 28.154359, "relative_strength": -7.400919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -32.277115, "energy": 50.295585, "activity_lines": [ 30.576667, 30.782728, 30.865263, 30.655484 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 29.67, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 298.7, "trend": 30.349667, "fair_value": 28.190737, "relative_strength": -10.232665, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.42613, "energy": 66.338299, "activity_lines": [ 30.214, 30.560182, 30.764763, 30.611398 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 29.610001, "volume": 804, "typical_volume": 199.3, "trend": 30.344, "fair_value": 28.224744, "relative_strength": -9.323159, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.115993, "energy": 80.976221, "activity_lines": [ 29.922001, 30.351455, 30.657739, 30.563678 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 29.879999, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 116.2, "trend": 30.368834, "fair_value": 28.259103, "relative_strength": -8.840508, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.953478, "energy": 74.19971, "activity_lines": [ 29.814667, 30.217637, 30.577382, 30.533742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 30.27, "volume": 299, "typical_volume": 116.2, "trend": 30.389167, "fair_value": 28.292949, "relative_strength": -10.827694, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.769619, "energy": 74.535421, "activity_lines": [ 29.914, 30.175637, 30.535786, 30.527366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.610001, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 116.4, "trend": 30.3875, "fair_value": 28.325192, "relative_strength": -12.228591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.653175, "energy": 63.134379, "activity_lines": [ 29.844, 30.027455, 30.430953, 30.477097 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 30.264999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 116.4, "trend": 30.401167, "fair_value": 28.35984, "relative_strength": -8.583777, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.572017, "energy": 38.107209, "activity_lines": [ 29.996333, 30.024182, 30.391262, 30.469194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.264999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 99.2, "trend": 30.427167, "fair_value": 28.39484, "relative_strength": -10.196933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.17503, "energy": 22.541805, "activity_lines": [ 30.109, 30.034818, 30.351215, 30.460409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.74, "volume": 598, "typical_volume": 114.15, "trend": 30.469, "fair_value": 28.431442, "relative_strength": -8.638119, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.772057, "energy": 15.614346, "activity_lines": [ 30.336333, 30.145727, 30.361238, 30.480592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.379999, "volume": 2093, "typical_volume": 218.8, "trend": 30.5285, "fair_value": 28.468494, "relative_strength": -7.157215, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.414932, "energy": 40.337471, "activity_lines": [ 30.719666, 30.378272, 30.435333, 30.539366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.68, "volume": 1196, "typical_volume": 278.6, "trend": 30.5625, "fair_value": 28.501987, "relative_strength": -8.784462, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.518474, "energy": 30.71222, "activity_lines": [ 30.795666, 30.477181, 30.442833, 30.54914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.15, "volume": 5681, "typical_volume": 534.9, "trend": 30.6175, "fair_value": 28.539776, "relative_strength": -7.828162, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.426294, "energy": 35.522803, "activity_lines": [ 30.957, 30.643182, 30.4985, 30.587043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.315001, "volume": 1508, "typical_volume": 610.3, "trend": 30.667667, "fair_value": 28.579648, "relative_strength": -8.039831, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.330555, "energy": 37.285397, "activity_lines": [ 31.114334, 30.812273, 30.56931, 30.632043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }