{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19c9ef19-abb5-4b1c-b503-f8a785c304a0", "symbol": "MLI", "name": "Mueller Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.854, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.301, "architecture_energy": 30.429, "architecture_maturity": 16.103, "architecture_confidence": 69.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.47, "rotation_up": 57.59, "upward_expansion": 67.0, "deceleration": 58.93, "rotation_down": 18.08, "downward_expansion": 15.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.124667, 63.687182, 64.312407, 63.288587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 68.85, "trend_reference": 62.503897, "distance_from_trend": 0.101531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.196299, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.712844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.898012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175154, "excess_performance": 0.049529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.712844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05898, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175154, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.857419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4974520, "relative_activity": 1.094103, "balance": 1.857419, "dry_up": 1.619691, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072866, "annualized_volatility": 0.354773, "from_high_reference": -0.031918, "from_low_reference": 0.560316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.503897, "fair_value_reference": 40.196299, "structural_low": 53.494014, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049941, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.034363, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.281273, "worst_return": -0.061069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083473, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.091515, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.307919, "worst_return": -0.029136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.299351, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.211055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399567, "worst_return": 0.091468, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.44772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089249, 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"direction": -24.575469, "energy": 26.913747, "activity_lines": [ 60.645667, 63.285986, 63.450303, 62.610653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.13, "volume": 9380706, "typical_volume": 4116045.0, "trend": 61.805889, "fair_value": 39.285156, "relative_strength": -4.117902, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.648569, "energy": 30.868271, "activity_lines": [ 59.333667, 62.206872, 63.179497, 62.441596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.91, "volume": 8024576, "typical_volume": 4344983.1, "trend": 61.978814, "fair_value": 39.569232, "relative_strength": 3.839427, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.818436, "energy": 27.14113, "activity_lines": [ 60.276, 62.198666, 63.361584, 62.577345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.41, "volume": 7076981, "typical_volume": 4541898.45, "trend": 62.256944, "fair_value": 39.874289, "relative_strength": 6.195728, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.820826, "energy": 15.977146, "activity_lines": [ 62.370667, 62.720109, 63.748755, 62.863228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.85, "volume": 4974520, "typical_volume": 4546666.5, "trend": 62.503897, "fair_value": 40.196299, "relative_strength": 5.898012, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.300808, "energy": 30.429351, "activity_lines": [ 65.124667, 63.687182, 64.312407, 63.288587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }