{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19cecabe-ff60-49e9-9e0b-eb1f6f1462e8", "symbol": "600828", "name": "Maoye Commercial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.85, "architecture_energy": 46.361, "architecture_maturity": 86.109, "architecture_confidence": 66.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.21, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 18.84, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 48.18, "downward_expansion": 71.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.712, 3.709818, 4.063286, 4.471677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.89, "trend_reference": 5.100667, "distance_from_trend": -0.237355, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.943994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.272649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408815, "excess_performance": -0.365611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77334642, "relative_activity": 0.853994, "balance": 0.605082, "dry_up": 1.15548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128139, "annualized_volatility": 0.580898, "from_high_reference": -0.550808, "from_low_reference": 0.161194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.100667, "fair_value_reference": 3.943994, "structural_low": 3.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016854, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.01396, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.20082, "worst_return": -0.278752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071874, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379032, "worst_return": -0.250689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.000538, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.052941, "worst_return": -0.145853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.670825, "energy": 87.400904, "activity_lines": [ 3.664667, 3.992364, 4.448333, 4.890774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.54, "volume": 115800023, "typical_volume": 104912414.55, "trend": 5.332333, "fair_value": 3.950781, "relative_strength": -24.941577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.08614, "energy": 82.544543, "activity_lines": [ 3.605333, 3.864545, 4.320429, 4.768903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.4, "volume": 92607464, "typical_volume": 96628309.7, "trend": 5.229, "fair_value": 3.947949, "relative_strength": -28.629785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.808271, "energy": 67.841571, "activity_lines": [ 3.529333, 3.738727, 4.192429, 4.644237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.83, "volume": 132802325, "typical_volume": 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"classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }