{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19d1978a-e3a9-424d-a10d-3b9a7d2590a5", "symbol": "NXP", "name": "Nuveen Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.523, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.409, "architecture_energy": 19.023, "architecture_maturity": 19.138, "architecture_confidence": 46.313, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.15, "rotation_up": 40.04, "upward_expansion": 62.0, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 22.38, "downward_expansion": 14.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.259817, 14.268596, 14.23157, 14.206722 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.28, "trend_reference": 14.1564, "distance_from_trend": 0.008731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.522244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.387763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022358, "excess_performance": -0.103266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008731, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022358, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715038, "relative_activity": 1.043963, "balance": 1.055678, "dry_up": 1.006876, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015713, "annualized_volatility": 0.070245, "from_high_reference": -0.019231, "from_low_reference": 0.06798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.1564, "fair_value_reference": 13.522244, "structural_low": 13.774742, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.003612, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.021066, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.007566, "worst_return": -0.043453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01396, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.062567, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.019282, "worst_return": -0.085192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006738, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.099243, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.033564, "worst_return": -0.133618, "sufficient": 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"close": 14.45, "volume": 563631, "typical_volume": 650711.0, "trend": 14.113489, "fair_value": 13.493372, "relative_strength": -5.26762, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.245703, "energy": 50.712958, "activity_lines": [ 14.332079, 14.274983, 14.219938, 14.187192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.28, "volume": 770340, "typical_volume": 659648.4, "trend": 14.130546, "fair_value": 13.50243, "relative_strength": -5.679824, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.590448, "energy": 39.10717, "activity_lines": [ 14.324175, 14.28351, 14.228528, 14.197935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.13, "volume": 709536, "typical_volume": 672974.75, "trend": 14.143255, "fair_value": 13.511262, "relative_strength": -7.440817, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.543749, "energy": 19.214941, "activity_lines": [ 14.263421, 14.263075, 14.222716, 14.197899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.28, "volume": 715038, "typical_volume": 684926.55, "trend": 14.1564, "fair_value": 13.522244, "relative_strength": -9.387763, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.408834, "energy": 19.022571, "activity_lines": [ 14.259817, 14.268596, 14.23157, 14.206722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }