{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19d46e88-f5fc-46e1-8fba-5e7787dcea51", "symbol": "900946", "name": "Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.063, "architecture_energy": 14.882, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.791, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.8, "rotation_up": 37.34, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 24.9, "downward_expansion": 57.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.188067, 0.185418, 0.185862, 0.188308 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.192, "trend_reference": 0.1942, "distance_from_trend": -0.011329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.184212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.096962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.033719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2222200, "relative_activity": 0.885325, "balance": 1.137705, "dry_up": 1.150302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046474, "annualized_volatility": 0.284689, "from_high_reference": -0.414634, "from_low_reference": 0.097143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1942, "fair_value_reference": 0.184212, "structural_low": 0.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007319, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.000122, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.180645, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.083129, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008352, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.504348, "worst_return": -0.248366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096386, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.125228, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.126667, "worst_return": -0.220779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.18, "volume": 636800, "typical_volume": 2670395.45, "trend": 0.1965, "fair_value": 0.184058, "relative_strength": -14.063203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.576942, "energy": 53.694908, "activity_lines": [ 0.180267, 0.181836, 0.18509, 0.189432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.191, "volume": 5237900, "typical_volume": 2615879.95, "trend": 0.1959, "fair_value": 0.184109, "relative_strength": -9.610137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.980885, "energy": 24.968819, "activity_lines": [ 0.1838, 0.183127, 0.185429, 0.189077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.187, "volume": 3452310, "typical_volume": 2534734.95, "trend": 0.195033, "fair_value": 0.184141, "relative_strength": -11.461491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.059761, "energy": 18.177567, "activity_lines": [ 0.185333, 0.183818, 0.185419, 0.188503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.192, "volume": 2222200, "typical_volume": 2510039.5, "trend": 0.1942, "fair_value": 0.184212, "relative_strength": -11.096962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.063241, "energy": 14.881869, "activity_lines": [ 0.188067, 0.185418, 0.185862, 0.188308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }