{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19d9fa20-28b5-42f0-9395-43f7e1ae31f5", "symbol": "RTG", "name": "RTG Mining Inc.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.766, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.98, "architecture_energy": 17.721, "architecture_maturity": 6.033, "architecture_confidence": 48.291, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.6, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 20.72, "deceleration": 52.34, "rotation_down": 46.21, "downward_expansion": 41.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0364, 0.036909, 0.038433, 0.038314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.038033, "distance_from_trend": 0.025416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.032673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.85634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026316, "excess_performance": -0.03739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068563, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 714808, "relative_activity": 0.440887, "balance": 0.370272, "dry_up": 0.835153, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136095, "annualized_volatility": 0.624614, "from_high_reference": -0.204082, "from_low_reference": 0.772727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038033, "fair_value_reference": 0.032673, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096774, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.071494, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.153846, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.21528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.432432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.119048, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.154459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.410553, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.487447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.297297, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.225806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 1.192085, "energy": 10.349184, "activity_lines": [ 0.0378, 0.038473, 0.039229, 0.038718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.032, "volume": 2634241, "typical_volume": 1835491.45, "trend": 0.037767, "fair_value": 0.032699, "relative_strength": -6.375922, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.356124, "energy": 26.194886, "activity_lines": [ 0.035867, 0.037073, 0.03859, 0.038355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 1719071, "typical_volume": 1679502.95, "trend": 0.037867, "fair_value": 0.032686, "relative_strength": 2.35969, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.918539, "energy": 32.044591, "activity_lines": [ 0.035667, 0.036636, 0.038367, 0.038241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 714808, "typical_volume": 1621293.75, "trend": 0.038033, "fair_value": 0.032673, "relative_strength": 6.85634, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.980458, "energy": 17.720802, "activity_lines": [ 0.0364, 0.036909, 0.038433, 0.038314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }