{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19dd162d-458d-4b9e-88ad-c2b235cec6aa", "symbol": "PRY", "name": "Prysmian S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.262, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.017, "architecture_energy": 27.558, "architecture_maturity": 67.982, "architecture_confidence": 84.732, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.38, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 46.41, "deceleration": 84.99, "rotation_down": 48.58, "downward_expansion": 38.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.436669, 132.227274, 135.841597, 129.867738 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 128.300003, "trend_reference": 120.778737, "distance_from_trend": 0.062273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.530649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.845229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.757464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.274085, "excess_performance": 0.099838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169357, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.845229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.613503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.274085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.157509, "balance": 0.230486, "dry_up": 0.119522, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071647, "annualized_volatility": 0.436949, "from_high_reference": -0.17492, "from_low_reference": 0.774518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.778737, "fair_value_reference": 69.530649, "structural_low": 89.791031, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.056397, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.009704, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.359327, "worst_return": -0.155735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.120095, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.043444, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.533544, "worst_return": -0.110541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111505, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.111613, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.725238, "worst_return": -0.042112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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137.070703, 127.779388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 125.050003, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 722.0, "trend": 116.851971, "fair_value": 67.783464, "relative_strength": 5.03497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.546701, "energy": 24.566239, "activity_lines": [ 136.183334, 140.629091, 136.895571, 128.395731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 126.400002, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 630.65, "trend": 118.218514, "fair_value": 68.369245, "relative_strength": 4.091742, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.307786, "energy": 25.361016, "activity_lines": [ 131.616668, 137.510909, 136.735421, 129.011733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.550003, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 541.25, "trend": 119.363419, "fair_value": 68.928128, "relative_strength": 0.506919, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.174179, "energy": 28.269354, "activity_lines": [ 127.400002, 134.091819, 136.066605, 129.291184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.300003, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 539.65, "trend": 120.778737, "fair_value": 69.530649, "relative_strength": 1.757464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.016757, "energy": 27.557796, "activity_lines": [ 126.436669, 132.227274, 135.841597, 129.867738 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }