{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19e24358-d437-4ee4-be04-eb344523848c", "symbol": "XAIX", "name": "Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence & Big Data UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.202, "architecture_energy": 29.984, "architecture_maturity": 73.743, "architecture_confidence": 93.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.69, "rotation_up": 25.59, "upward_expansion": 58.03, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 30.32, "downward_expansion": 21.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 198.107332, 201.006545, 197.722096, 188.305033 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 204.699997, "trend_reference": 176.574, "distance_from_trend": 0.159287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.335321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.535227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.874083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.356258, "excess_performance": 0.185366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.535227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.356258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.856989, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41241, "relative_activity": 0.670331, "balance": 3.856989, "dry_up": 0.827462, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050505, "annualized_volatility": 0.27044, "from_high_reference": -0.048924, "from_low_reference": 0.504373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.574, "fair_value_reference": 133.335321, "structural_low": 141.460007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022718, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013044, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125919, "worst_return": -0.028587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002076, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188375, "worst_return": -0.208018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.184581, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.094249, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313726, "worst_return": 0.006417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 64.154444, "energy": 63.871612, "activity_lines": [ 207.856669, 206.467821, 192.49024, 182.308259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 193.380005, "volume": 78124, "typical_volume": 66318.95, "trend": 172.429334, "fair_value": 131.221923, "relative_strength": 5.109921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.440408, "energy": 49.338477, "activity_lines": [ 202.88267, 204.641639, 193.811716, 183.747141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.899994, "volume": 44357, "typical_volume": 61459.05, "trend": 173.772001, "fair_value": 131.894808, "relative_strength": 5.37387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.601737, "energy": 34.537988, "activity_lines": [ 198.882001, 202.814729, 194.984144, 185.132345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 193.309998, "volume": 39911, "typical_volume": 61533.0, "trend": 175.061334, "fair_value": 132.57218, "relative_strength": 4.160859, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.71402, "energy": 27.684631, "activity_lines": [ 196.069999, 200.832728, 195.906715, 186.392861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 204.699997, "volume": 41241, "typical_volume": 61523.35, "trend": 176.574, "fair_value": 133.335321, "relative_strength": 6.874083, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.202487, "energy": 29.984308, "activity_lines": [ 198.107332, 201.006545, 197.722096, 188.305033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }