{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19e7b115-f100-4920-b9d1-255e8ecb0d35", "symbol": "VSL", "name": "Vulcan Steel Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.673, "architecture_energy": 17.122, "architecture_maturity": 97.457, "architecture_confidence": 67.608, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.76, "rotation_up": 34.6, "upward_expansion": 20.34, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 56.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.386667, 6.237273, 6.284095, 6.479348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.66, "trend_reference": 6.871033, "distance_from_trend": -0.030713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.614248, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125324, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.791169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131137, "excess_performance": -0.159411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093347, "read": "Falling" 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.126355, "energy": 48.486225, "activity_lines": [ 6.038667, 6.092182, 6.279069, 6.586354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.5, "volume": 765554, "typical_volume": 393855.55, "trend": 7.008867, "fair_value": 7.627749, "relative_strength": -14.854248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.23183, "energy": 32.874187, "activity_lines": [ 6.186667, 6.14, 6.278762, 6.549582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.2, "volume": 526693, "typical_volume": 405551.6, "trend": 6.939759, "fair_value": 7.619878, "relative_strength": -18.169497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.249349, "energy": 25.237012, "activity_lines": [ 6.213333, 6.141818, 6.256429, 6.497397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.66, "volume": 2011974, "typical_volume": 497267.8, "trend": 6.871033, "fair_value": 7.614248, "relative_strength": -12.791169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.672889, "energy": 17.122261, "activity_lines": [ 6.386667, 6.237273, 6.284095, 6.479348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }