{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19e8f995-eac6-49a0-b681-aff7257a4f3a", "symbol": "8044", "name": "PChome Online Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.675, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.676, "architecture_energy": 9.319, "architecture_maturity": 22.623, "architecture_confidence": 63.917, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.31, "rotation_up": 23.12, "upward_expansion": 41.74, "deceleration": 82.34, "rotation_down": 36.08, "downward_expansion": 35.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.676667, 27.07, 27.231905, 26.698495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.450001, "trend_reference": 26.55, "distance_from_trend": -0.003766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.631731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.618159, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048561, "excess_performance": -0.489933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257684, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058967, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.030208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1380210, "relative_activity": 0.268862, "balance": 2.030208, "dry_up": 0.376893, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126799, "annualized_volatility": 0.399606, "from_high_reference": -0.303947, "from_low_reference": 0.196833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.55, "fair_value_reference": 35.631731, "structural_low": 22.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025535, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.049569, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204887, "worst_return": -0.142037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.154494, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.192115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171053, "worst_return": -0.252033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.280384, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.250572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20927, "worst_return": -0.452032, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001887, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 3639000, "typical_volume": 3139741.85, "trend": 55.719998, "fair_value": 83.388272, "relative_strength": -27.925003, "stage": 4, 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"typical_volume": 5230493.9, "trend": 26.755, "fair_value": 35.854808, "relative_strength": -35.989753, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.109326, "energy": 18.128207, "activity_lines": [ 26.296666, 27.400909, 27.027857, 26.632473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.0, "volume": 2068852, "typical_volume": 5177337.95, "trend": 26.671667, "fair_value": 35.749359, "relative_strength": -30.606282, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.594601, "energy": 17.083552, "activity_lines": [ 26.74, 27.367272, 27.215476, 26.712796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.450001, "volume": 1380210, "typical_volume": 5133532.5, "trend": 26.55, "fair_value": 35.631731, "relative_strength": -35.618159, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.675864, "energy": 9.319174, "activity_lines": [ 26.676667, 27.07, 27.231905, 26.698495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }