{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19eb9499-48b4-47bd-abc5-14c4fef4d248", "symbol": "ACHC", "name": "Acadia Healthcare Company Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.455, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.123, "architecture_energy": 52.452, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.74, "rotation_up": 65.72, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 56.29, "rotation_down": 14.57, "downward_expansion": 7.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.996, 30.993818, 28.742238, 27.173591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.53, "trend_reference": 24.324, "distance_from_trend": 0.296251, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.145609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.144484, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.358265, "excess_performance": 1.170811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.296251, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.241445, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.358265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.707251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10801957, "relative_activity": 0.741516, "balance": 2.707251, "dry_up": 1.035364, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11758, "annualized_volatility": 0.716008, "from_high_reference": -0.120011, "from_low_reference": 1.75853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.324, "fair_value_reference": 45.145609, "structural_low": 12.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.034349, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010682, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.098784, "worst_return": -0.153397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000547, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.260409, "worst_return": -0.183426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.082483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068915, "worst_return": -0.24162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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25.224204, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.605155, "energy": 73.926669, "activity_lines": [ 29.376, 27.319636, 26.375476, 24.67114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.5, "volume": 16561162, "typical_volume": 14793731.25, "trend": 22.552333, "fair_value": 46.026378, "relative_strength": 43.275948, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.206804, "energy": 84.319321, "activity_lines": [ 31.537333, 28.83, 27.221762, 25.485161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.51, "volume": 10087413, "typical_volume": 14406531.6, "trend": 23.213, "fair_value": 45.738494, "relative_strength": 44.758419, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.992177, "energy": 85.523199, "activity_lines": [ 33.042, 30.172727, 28.016333, 26.256624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.62, "volume": 22879677, "typical_volume": 14744932.35, "trend": 23.724, "fair_value": 45.436891, "relative_strength": 23.238466, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.461771, "energy": 70.722511, "activity_lines": [ 32.274, 30.468182, 28.302857, 26.669978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.53, "volume": 10801957, "typical_volume": 14567393.05, "trend": 24.324, "fair_value": 45.145609, "relative_strength": 24.144484, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.122553, "energy": 52.452487, "activity_lines": [ 31.996, 30.993818, 28.742238, 27.173591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }