{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19ed89a4-9fe2-448d-9648-3371e57b62fa", "symbol": "097230", "name": "HJ Shipbuilding & Construction Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.2, "architecture_energy": 50.73, "architecture_maturity": 60.298, "architecture_confidence": 92.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 8.75, "deceleration": 57.61, "rotation_down": 47.23, "downward_expansion": 79.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 16924.666667, 17110.727273, 19224.714286, 20966.860215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16940.0, "trend_reference": 22786.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.256583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11103.846154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.525598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.077644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.369088, "excess_performance": -0.559225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.525598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.755415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.369088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 939139, "relative_activity": 0.206376, "balance": 0.660835, "dry_up": 0.368201, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148806, "annualized_volatility": 0.584582, "from_high_reference": -0.506841, "from_low_reference": 0.312161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22786.666667, "fair_value_reference": 11103.846154, "structural_low": 12910.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.023649, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.027113, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.778281, "worst_return": -0.253411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008863, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.063518, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.186916, "worst_return": -0.390071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112217, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087653, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.61086, "worst_return": 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23310.333333, "fair_value": 10930.032051, "relative_strength": -44.382948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.167942, "energy": 79.389073, "activity_lines": [ 16224.0, 17524.727273, 20118.857143, 21707.763441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17900.0, "volume": 1651003, "typical_volume": 4827587.1, "trend": 23013.666667, "fair_value": 11020.096154, "relative_strength": -46.07781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.148254, "energy": 61.566844, "activity_lines": [ 16740.0, 17370.0, 19701.666667, 21358.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 16940.0, "volume": 939139, "typical_volume": 4550614.45, "trend": 22786.666667, "fair_value": 11103.846154, "relative_strength": -48.077644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.200336, "energy": 50.729614, "activity_lines": [ 16924.666667, 17110.727273, 19224.714286, 20966.860215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }