{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19fa6268-10c6-438c-afff-cf8ef54fd941", "symbol": "CLNX", "name": "Cellnex Telecom, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.344, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.214, "architecture_energy": 41.738, "architecture_maturity": 26.338, "architecture_confidence": 87.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.73, "rotation_up": 20.91, "upward_expansion": 5.7, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 50.6, "downward_expansion": 76.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.344875, 26.417818, 27.179825, 27.57096 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.34, "trend_reference": 27.856211, "distance_from_trend": -0.018531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.089022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.195646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009061, "excess_performance": -0.183308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12059, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.240206, "dry_up": 0.259722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042923, "annualized_volatility": 0.342182, "from_high_reference": -0.159028, "from_low_reference": 0.136798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.856211, "fair_value_reference": 31.089022, "structural_low": 24.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.005271, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012106, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.245411, "worst_return": -0.157985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026349, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009459, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.207328, "worst_return": -0.181935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033614, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.108319, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.162897, "worst_return": -0.210584, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.110714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028653, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", 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"modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.809799, "energy": 77.352133, "activity_lines": [ 26.408911, 27.264278, 27.833374, 28.012986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.790001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 505.8, "trend": 27.862237, "fair_value": 31.278048, "relative_strength": -26.551293, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.558187, "energy": 92.161817, "activity_lines": [ 25.67249, 26.726527, 27.502963, 27.811257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.76, "volume": 374, "typical_volume": 524.5, "trend": 27.841982, "fair_value": 31.199427, "relative_strength": -23.940932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.2067, "energy": 84.689954, "activity_lines": [ 25.499935, 26.42823, 27.300028, 27.675628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.709999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 360.0, "trend": 27.830376, "fair_value": 31.143591, "relative_strength": -20.338664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.387862, "energy": 77.2234, "activity_lines": [ 25.788391, 26.348115, 27.203379, 27.602597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 360.0, "trend": 27.856211, "fair_value": 31.089022, "relative_strength": -20.195646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.214456, "energy": 41.737719, "activity_lines": [ 26.344875, 26.417818, 27.179825, 27.57096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }