{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19fb0fdc-ccdc-476b-96cc-59cbe31cd97a", "symbol": "QDEL", "name": "Quidel Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.038, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.255, "architecture_energy": 19.876, "architecture_maturity": 43.745, "architecture_confidence": 61.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.58, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 23.95, "deceleration": 56.2, "rotation_down": 37.93, "downward_expansion": 53.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.312333, 15.699455, 14.682286, 15.253591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.285, "trend_reference": 17.4425, "distance_from_trend": -0.295686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.196218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.678371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.568754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.577835, "excess_performance": -0.765289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.295686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.678371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076472, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.515688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.577835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.130725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11412419, "relative_activity": 1.164729, "balance": 1.130725, "dry_up": 0.69098, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231906, "annualized_volatility": 0.922966, "from_high_reference": -0.654673, "from_low_reference": 0.238407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.4425, "fair_value_reference": 38.196218, "structural_low": 9.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.072642, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.296296, "median_excess_return": -0.083538, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.292463, "worst_return": -0.333772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.138655, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.145282, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.005907, "worst_return": -0.473575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.330885, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.389738, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.01005, "worst_return": -0.576136, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.204843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292912, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.300843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", 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18.27, "volume": 6349043, "typical_volume": 9925109.9, "trend": 19.382167, "fair_value": 39.947276, "relative_strength": -31.499551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.629019, "energy": 20.378797, "activity_lines": [ 16.479333, 15.063455, 14.268048, 16.066688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.38, "volume": 5497945, "typical_volume": 9905507.95, "trend": 18.9965, "fair_value": 39.500929, "relative_strength": -31.270491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.898315, "energy": 25.721236, "activity_lines": [ 17.065333, 15.706364, 14.50819, 15.937516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.05, "volume": 4980407, "typical_volume": 9919750.35, "trend": 18.554833, "fair_value": 39.045353, "relative_strength": -34.633395, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.183144, "energy": 25.644908, "activity_lines": [ 16.991333, 15.987818, 14.64719, 15.747419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.77, "volume": 5191082, "typical_volume": 9796924.8, "trend": 18.1545, "fair_value": 38.617019, "relative_strength": -31.451356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.412527, "energy": 23.681348, "activity_lines": [ 16.998667, 16.296, 14.877524, 15.632269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.285, "volume": 11412419, "typical_volume": 9798344.6, "trend": 17.4425, "fair_value": 38.196218, "relative_strength": -51.568754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.255125, "energy": 19.876112, "activity_lines": [ 15.312333, 15.699455, 14.682286, 15.253591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }