{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19fd6a8c-0c90-4c3d-be3b-5071e0c826ec", "symbol": "RFG", "name": "Roebuck Food Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.471, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.501, "architecture_energy": 17.08, "architecture_maturity": 45.931, "architecture_confidence": 59.064, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.68, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 13.11, "deceleration": 59.57, "rotation_down": 46.51, "downward_expansion": 43.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.260909, 0.262667, 0.264478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.261583, "distance_from_trend": -0.006053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.174131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.493125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.964526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019608, "excess_performance": -0.031627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.493125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099645, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019608, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680, "relative_activity": 0.046369, "balance": null, "dry_up": 1.196394, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036021, "annualized_volatility": 0.114472, "from_high_reference": -0.133333, "from_low_reference": 0.913312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.261583, "fair_value_reference": 0.174131, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.013192, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026786, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.063644, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.083871, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.083787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365385, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": 0.038462, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.459459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037037, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1275, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 85038.55, "trend": 0.14775, "fair_value": 0.143494, "relative_strength": -5.802838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.066904, "energy": 34.1295, 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"direction": 3.54258, "energy": 9.292663, "activity_lines": [ 0.263333, 0.264091, 0.266333, 0.262565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.26, "volume": 33643, "typical_volume": 46505.15, "trend": 0.251583, "fair_value": 0.170542, "relative_strength": 16.824644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.893852, "energy": 9.980671, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.263273, 0.265405, 0.263274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.26, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 17877.95, "trend": 0.254083, "fair_value": 0.171471, "relative_strength": 15.043719, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.944997, "energy": 13.654015, "activity_lines": [ 0.261, 0.262545, 0.264548, 0.263817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.26, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 13803.6, "trend": 0.256583, "fair_value": 0.172369, "relative_strength": 12.908864, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.513604, "energy": 18.294223, "activity_lines": [ 0.260333, 0.261909, 0.26381, 0.264199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 16230.9, "trend": 0.259083, "fair_value": 0.173266, "relative_strength": 10.914043, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.152061, "energy": 13.86062, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.261364, 0.26319, 0.264419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 680, "typical_volume": 14664.9, "trend": 0.261583, "fair_value": 0.174131, "relative_strength": 9.964526, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.501025, "energy": 17.079639, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.260909, 0.262667, 0.264478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }