{ "ticker": { "uuid": "19fe4000-c9f5-4b6e-a0c2-aab47d6ec3ba", "symbol": "5278", "name": "Sunfun Info Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 91.013, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.895, "architecture_energy": 6.585, "architecture_maturity": 17.643, "architecture_confidence": 70.201, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.82, "rotation_up": 22.84, "upward_expansion": 27.1, "deceleration": 39.77, "rotation_down": 25.49, "downward_expansion": 44.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.316667, 24.29659, 23.863078, 23.992991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.450001, "trend_reference": 24.724955, "distance_from_trend": -0.011121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.273779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.290067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101721, "excess_performance": -0.543093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.554213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 461005, "relative_activity": 0.246829, "balance": 2.554213, "dry_up": 0.310815, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070457, "annualized_volatility": 0.35546, "from_high_reference": -0.441872, "from_low_reference": 0.14113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.724955, "fair_value_reference": 24.273779, "structural_low": 21.426132, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01749, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.054681, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.31186, "worst_return": -0.161754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098386, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.144548, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.685508, "worst_return": -0.090122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.356843, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.322347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.968399, "worst_return": 0.015154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.047839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.65, "volume": 431001, "typical_volume": 2091737.1, "trend": 24.881593, "fair_value": 24.192473, "relative_strength": -38.253478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.385678, "energy": 8.137154, "activity_lines": [ 24.226666, 24.227558, 23.783468, 24.020835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.450001, "volume": 461005, "typical_volume": 1867706.35, "trend": 24.724955, "fair_value": 24.273779, "relative_strength": -39.290067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.894834, "energy": 6.584583, "activity_lines": [ 24.316667, 24.29659, 23.863078, 23.992991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }